For some reason, market pundits revel in peering into the crystal ball and predicting where the Index will be in the future.
This exercise makes them feel omniscient and gives them an air of superiority over the hoi polloi.
However, in the case of Saurabh Mukherjea and Andrew Holland, both high ranking officials with Ambit Capital, the exercise has degenerated into a mindless farce of reckless guesswork.
While Saurabh Mukherjea, with a solemn and grim expression on his face, predicted that the Sensex would plunge to a level of 22,000 from the present level of 27,000, his colleague, Andrew Holland, was preparing to uncork the champagne and party hard on the basis that the Nifty would surge to 10,000 from the present level of about 8,100.
Understandably, the punters at MMB, who keep a keen lookout for such issues, are irked at the quixotic state of affairs at Ambit Capital.
Joeboy was contemptuous: “These guys are like dogs trying to bark and scare off retail investors. They said nothing when the nifty was 9000 Will keep repeating the 22k scenario till Sensex hits 32k” he said.
nishkumar1977 was amused at the conflict of opinion between Saurabh and Andrew: “There is Andrew Holland from Ambit Cap who is talking about Nifty hitting 10 000 by Dec-15 and then theres Mr Mukherjea who is talking about Sensex hitting 22K Don’t these guys talk to each other at office” he asked with a smirk.
ashishsoft was also irked at the flip-flop between the two stalwarts: “his boss andrew holland was telling that markets would reach new high by december and he is has some different is this Ambit institution credible two persons at top posts are having very stark views Why do these people get these foolish people” he wanted to know.
“The possibility of 22000 on the Sensex would mean 6500 on the Nifty I think Saurabh has lost it” hedonist2 proclaimed.
Antoniojoao suspected a conspiracy in Saurabh’s prediction: “Ambit Cap probably missed the plane and probably wants the market to come down to 22000 levels so that he can buy Do not believe him India is in a position where it can reach Nifty on 30000 levels by end of 2016” he said.
The conspiracy theory was supported by SmallInv0099, a Platinum Member: “All the TV parrots are paid agents of certain Brokers This guy -mukharjee- must be a paid agent of FIIs who want to pitch in the market at low levels Already currency exchange rate is favoring the FIIs” he remarked.
silver12345 was also contemptuous “truly, this man needs counselling ……. and maybe some rehab……raat ki utri nahin” he said.
In the past, several ace stock pickers have learnt the perils of forecasting the state of the market.
Shankar Sharma, for instance, has a bad habit of making doomsday predictions whenever the markets correct a bit. In Feb 2014, he got into serious trouble for predicting that he was “100% sure” that the markets would crash and then doing a somersault when he realized that he was horribly wrong. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the Badshah of Dalal Street, had to rebuke him mildly for making reckless and irresponsible statements.
Ramesh Damani, the Nawab of Dalal Street, was also fond of predicting the Sensex levels. During the great crash of 2008, Ramesh Damani predicted that we were in the midst of a great multi-year Bear market. If someone challenged his view, Ramesh would mock the person by saying that he (the challenger) had not lived long enough to see a real Bear market. However, thereafter, when he realized he was wrong, Ramesh Damani had the good grace to apologize publicly and has now sworn off predicting the Index levels.
Madhusudan Kela, another astute stock picker, is also allergic to predicting the Index levels. When Prashant Nair of NDTV pressed him, Madhusudan Kela bluntly told him that he does not know the answer and does not even want to “hazard a guess”. “I have learnt the hard way that the Index is unpredictable” Kela said with a wry smile.
Fortunately, in the present case, Saurabh Mukherjea had the good sense to offer stock specific recommendations. He advised investors to buy stocks like Tata Motors, PI Industries, HCL Technologies, Torrent Pharma etc as protection against the expected carnage. That soothed the sentiments of the punters to some extent.
For the future, Saurabh Mukherjea and Andrew Holland would be well advised to consult each other to ensure that their crystal ball gazing is on the same wavelength!
Be stock specific . Find values in the stocks.Don’t bother execessively about the index. This is Warren Buffett’s advice. Ken Fisher has repeatedly said that market is The Great Humiliater,it spares no one and enjoys surprising everybody.
Good comments…every expert is humbled one day or another
I think Sourabh Mukherjea is now in regular company of Shanker Sharma.But there are many Odds to prove him right.There is already global turmoil,Chinese worry ,meltdown of commodities earning slow down and what else can go wrong further.But some positive factors like other assets class becoming unattractive like gold, real estate and bank rate going down ,investers are devoid of many choices. So they are in equity less directly and more through mutual funds.So for atleast next six months this flow is not going to slow down.After six month earning may start kicking in.So market going down to 22000 because of cues presently visible is highly unlikely. But if he knows some thing available to him only,than it is diffrent issue.But Andrew Holland need very less to prove him right.He just need a NDA win in Bihar and some new bad unexpectedly does not happen .But as of now certainly Andrew Holland has edge over Sourbh Mukherjea .
Its about 2 people from same ambit capital giving opposite views. Probably one has bought another has sold. The two are giving opposite statements which can be complained to SEBI.
It is unfortunate that industry stalwarts like Saurabh and Andrew make such contrary statements confusing public and investors and in turn seriously affecting their own credibility. How can two top professionals from same organization have opposite views on same issue. Pls understand they represent an organization. It is not your personal choice to make a confusing statement like this.
Two different opinions about macro scenario of same time period in future, by two different experts , should be not surprising.As we know investing is taking bet on future probablities,which is never certain. In addition we also know that investing is more of an art than science and macro horizon has both positive(optimistic) and negative(pessimistic) factors.It depends on our perspective to decide which type of factors should be accorded more weightage to determine future probablities.Thus individual’s own independent perspective plays the crucial role. Therefore it is no wonder that two different experts have given two independent views. May be these opinions are expressed in their individual capacity .
In any way , one will be right and will boast and the other will say market always surprises us .
Nifty will not hit 10k Dec 2015 – even if NDA wins Bihar.
Ignorance is bliss… And Retail Investors seem to be living in it. The world faces serious problems – china slowdown, BRICS sans India breakdown, Euro and Japanese deflation and US stuttering along.
Q2 results season a likely washout.
So its Andrew who needs to watch out.
If Fed blinks ( rate takeoff), the tremble will resonate pretty loud in the emerging markets including India and with a lasting effect. And rate takeoff should happen. Its becoming a necessity now from a US perspective.
the modus operandi is simple, write a book using cut and paste, get it favourably reviewed, make some outrageous market calls like ” real estate will fall 50 percent ” and viola you are a market expert Shankar Sharma style
Ha Ha on Shankar Sharma style. Is Saurabh Mukherjee is also falling in the same ‘Ha Ha’ league.