For some reason, market pundits revel in peering into the crystal ball and predicting where the Index will be in the future.
This exercise makes them feel omniscient and gives them an air of superiority over the hoi polloi.
However, in the case of Saurabh Mukherjea and Andrew Holland, both high ranking officials with Ambit Capital, the exercise has degenerated into a mindless farce of reckless guesswork.
While Saurabh Mukherjea, with a solemn and grim expression on his face, predicted that the Sensex would plunge to a level of 22,000 from the present level of 27,000, his colleague, Andrew Holland, was preparing to uncork the champagne and party hard on the basis that the Nifty would surge to 10,000 from the present level of about 8,100.
Understandably, the punters at MMB, who keep a keen lookout for such issues, are irked at the quixotic state of affairs at Ambit Capital.
Joeboy was contemptuous: “These guys are like dogs trying to bark and scare off retail investors. They said nothing when the nifty was 9000 Will keep repeating the 22k scenario till Sensex hits 32k” he said.
nishkumar1977 was amused at the conflict of opinion between Saurabh and Andrew: “There is Andrew Holland from Ambit Cap who is talking about Nifty hitting 10 000 by Dec-15 and then theres Mr Mukherjea who is talking about Sensex hitting 22K Don’t these guys talk to each other at office” he asked with a smirk.
ashishsoft was also irked at the flip-flop between the two stalwarts: “his boss andrew holland was telling that markets would reach new high by december and he is has some different is this Ambit institution credible two persons at top posts are having very stark views Why do these people get these foolish people” he wanted to know.
“The possibility of 22000 on the Sensex would mean 6500 on the Nifty I think Saurabh has lost it” hedonist2 proclaimed.
Antoniojoao suspected a conspiracy in Saurabh’s prediction: “Ambit Cap probably missed the plane and probably wants the market to come down to 22000 levels so that he can buy Do not believe him India is in a position where it can reach Nifty on 30000 levels by end of 2016” he said.
The conspiracy theory was supported by SmallInv0099, a Platinum Member: “All the TV parrots are paid agents of certain Brokers This guy -mukharjee- must be a paid agent of FIIs who want to pitch in the market at low levels Already currency exchange rate is favoring the FIIs” he remarked.
silver12345 was also contemptuous “truly, this man needs counselling ……. and maybe some rehab……raat ki utri nahin” he said.
In the past, several ace stock pickers have learnt the perils of forecasting the state of the market.
Shankar Sharma, for instance, has a bad habit of making doomsday predictions whenever the markets correct a bit. In Feb 2014, he got into serious trouble for predicting that he was “100% sure” that the markets would crash and then doing a somersault when he realized that he was horribly wrong. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the Badshah of Dalal Street, had to rebuke him mildly for making reckless and irresponsible statements.
Ramesh Damani, the Nawab of Dalal Street, was also fond of predicting the Sensex levels. During the great crash of 2008, Ramesh Damani predicted that we were in the midst of a great multi-year Bear market. If someone challenged his view, Ramesh would mock the person by saying that he (the challenger) had not lived long enough to see a real Bear market. However, thereafter, when he realized he was wrong, Ramesh Damani had the good grace to apologize publicly and has now sworn off predicting the Index levels.
Madhusudan Kela, another astute stock picker, is also allergic to predicting the Index levels. When Prashant Nair of NDTV pressed him, Madhusudan Kela bluntly told him that he does not know the answer and does not even want to “hazard a guess”. “I have learnt the hard way that the Index is unpredictable” Kela said with a wry smile.
Fortunately, in the present case, Saurabh Mukherjea had the good sense to offer stock specific recommendations. He advised investors to buy stocks like Tata Motors, PI Industries, HCL Technologies, Torrent Pharma etc as protection against the expected carnage. That soothed the sentiments of the punters to some extent.
For the future, Saurabh Mukherjea and Andrew Holland would be well advised to consult each other to ensure that their crystal ball gazing is on the same wavelength!