Subramanian Swamy’s demand that RBI governor Raghuram Rajan should be sacked immediately for alleged “Anti-National” activities is likely to have sinister implications for investors.
Aiyar, a well known economist and consulting editor of ET, argues that if Rajan is asked to leave, India will suffer a mass exodus of foreign portfolio investment. He claims that “tens of billions of dollars will flow out, maybe as much as 100 billion (if this coincides with some other bad news like a further Chinese slowdown or British exit from the European Union)“. He also warns that “the stock markets will crash and the currency markets will panic and India will be bruised severely”.
“Those wanting Rajan’s exit need to understand the consequences of what they wish for” Aiyar said in an ominous tone.
However, Aiyar’s prognosis has been rubbished by some FIIs and other experts.
Aberdeen Asset Management, a leading FII, stated that it remains bullish on India irrespective of whether Rahguram Rajan stays or leaves.
“While Rajan’s leadership at the RBI has been important in re-establishing the nation’s credibility, the economic reforms delivered by the government have been equally, if not more critical for encouraging the transition” Abeerdeen said in a diplomatic tone.
Aiyar’s scare-mongering also met with derision:
Such BS was also peddled as "After Nehru who?"… And these dumbos are called economists? LOL! https://t.co/fzDicYNaf0
— MediaCrooks (@mediacrooks) June 5, 2016
RBI can survive Raghuram Rajan. I think too much nonsense by folks who hate BJP
— Deepak Singh (@smarket) June 5, 2016
@dhume Crass fear-mongering by @swaminomics. Building a "narrative"? Plenty of central bankers before Rajan, plenty after him. @rvaidya2000
— Sankrant Sanu सानु (@sankrant) June 5, 2016
@dhume @swaminomics India's not a banana republic. Nobody is indispensable. Rajan has kept interest rates too high. Markets will do better.
— zulfiqar ali (@zulfi10) June 5, 2016
Journos lobbying for #RaghuramRajan is amusing:)Reminds me how everyone thought #BenBernanke was indispensable till #JanetYellen happened:))
— Sanju Verma (@Sanju_Verma_) June 1, 2016
Some pointed out that Aiyar has no credibility and is prone to making outlandish statements. In 2013, Aiyar had stated that “Hard reality is that Modi cannot become PM of India“:
@dhume @swaminomics lol "Hard reality is that Modi cannot become PM of India" @swaminomics predicted in 2013 :)) https://t.co/MFTIUxjGJL
— RajMKK (@rajmkk) June 4, 2016
Incidentally, Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar is the brother of Mani Shankar Aiyar, the Congress MP, who is known for his rabid anti-NAMO stance. Mani Shankar Aiyar shot into notoriety when he asked Pakistan for help to oust NAMO. He also shockingly defended/ rationalized terrorism as a counter to the oppression of Muslims the World over.
Rajan found support from Mohandas Pai. Pai claimed that “vested interests and cronies who have been forced to pay back their loans by banks are instigating all this against Rajan”.
A Princeton University professor named Avinash Dixit also spoke out in favour of Rajan getting a second term. He opined that “Raghuram Rajan deserves a second term as the RBI Governor… he should have full operational independence in pursuing targets (inflation, employment or growth)“.
However, this led to a fresh war of words:
Who next? Someone from the Timbuktoo Inst of Economics rooting for this man? LOL! All reasons for sacking him.. https://t.co/1EpisJAPNC
— MediaCrooks (@mediacrooks) June 5, 2016
@IndianExpress y this effort to retain R3…??? Y don't u quote some Paki economists, ISIS or Taliban even?
— Indian Strategist (@ranjankm) June 5, 2016
Now, the problem that NAMO faces is that there is immense pressure from both sides – Rajan’s haters and Rajan’s supporters and so whatever decision he takes will spark off a controversy. The best case scenario, from NAMO’s point of view, is for Rajan to relinquish a second appointment. That this may happen was hinted at by the Business Standard:
Rajan not seeking second term as RBI governor, Bengali newspaper report https://t.co/B7OBAk9nyA
— Business Standard (@bsindia) June 1, 2016
It looks many ,who had short position in market and now fearing of being wipe out due to market up turn,are now asking head of RBI governor so that market is crashed and they could close their shorts at minimum loss.As huge money is involved ,so probability of paid lobbying against Rajan.
It is very likely Rajan may not get the term he deserves. This government consists of several people with bogus academic backgrounds in decision making positions. Which is why they always come to the conclusion that RBI should reduce interest rates, without knowing what is behind decisions taken by the apex bank. All this government does is to threaten Sonia and Rahul Gandhi (which is another bogus because they will never harm these two) and plot the next move how to overthrow non BJP state governments, and speak ill of such state governments. Not one dollar of black money has comeback. In 2019, India will throw this bogus government out of the window because all its election promises were proved bogus.
Just be honest ok. Are you an investor? Tell the truth. Do you have any money at all. The reason is you support Rahul,Ghandi, Anti India sentiments, and hate the rise of the country. Listen to Vijay kedia and he will teach you the importance of talking good about the ocean you wish to swim in ok. You are clueless.
Dear, if this government would have arrested EVEN ONE politician from Congress, I would not have written my opinion above. The truth is BJP is FULLY protecting the Congress. After all what did Modi promise before his elections? He would ARREST every corrupt person from the UPA and get the stolen money back. Today, leave alone arrest, they have not even started even one probe against any previous government people. This is what makes me very critical and I abhor this government. Dont vote for BJP next time. They made a fool of you, living on YOUR money.
All you pumpkin heads just shut your trap. If anyone thinks Rajan is the sole responsibility that companies in India are making more or the economy and GdP is expanding only on his efforts, then Pleas sell your stocks and invest in Brazil, South Africa, and government controlled China. That’s it. Nothing more to say ok. Just sell and invest in Brazil, Greece, Russia, South Africa. Ok.
We are sorry Rajan was fired. We made a mistake ok. Good luck in Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
Bloody congress slaves. Don’t dare try and stop the rise of India with such foolish pathetic Rahul Ghandi type nonsense. If you are gay, then it is your life. Nobody cares ok. We don’t judge. Just don’t hide behind false pretentious, and lies. Don’t strive for apathy. At least speak the logic truth. Rajan must go if he cannot speak good of India and its people.
Agree…lets not make a hero out of everyone…Rajan has decent track record..doesn’t mean he is is a Mr.know all…If Rajan goes, India has a lot more with better capabilities to replace him..Just because some foreign investors and big corporate like him..not necessary that he is good for the country..
Just to add, nobody is irreplacable..and neither is Mr. Rajan..We have had some good RBI governors in the past like Mr. Subba Rao,YVReddy etc.,, and I am sure we will get lot more better governors..Having said that..So lets stop creating the false assumption that IF Rajan goes the country is doomed and goes to the stone age..
It is Govt.’s prerogative whether to give Rajan an extension or not and it is Rajan’s prerogative whether to accept a second term if offered (I doubt he will). RBI Governor should be someone who has a spine (like Rajan) and not someone who is an yes man of the Govt. It is unfortunate that some people find it hard to appreciate his contribution. And if the market crashes after his departure, the same people are going to say that people who are selling are unpatriotic congress supporters!
Another bogus baba advising Indian investors sell their Indian holding and invest in other countries. India will do well when Arvind Kejriwal comes into the national scene. And he will. Not as Prime Minister, but he will have a major say in the government post 2019. Till today not even one Congress or BJP has been arrested for corruption (Khadse is a case in point) because both parties know who to protect each other. Indian voters have become smart and can today cleaverly discern bogus parties. The age of big political parties forming a government has come to an end. The next government, just over two years from today will see a vastly different political landscape where modi will come to visit Kejriwal’s home with folded hands. Just wait and see. i see a BJP patch up with Kejriwal happening EVEN TODAY.
Pl Don’t even publish this SA Iyer comments.. Both brothers are attention seekers and pro dynasty people of Congress… Just pure waste time
The quality of comments on this blog is deteriorating. Admin, please take a note and block these users from puking all over the blog.
Totally agree
is Raghu Rajan inevitable? is he infalliable? is he indespensible? is he God of Economic policies of RBI? Swaminathan makes it appear to have vested interest in promoting and aggressively supporting RR. But LET good or rather better sense should prevail to bring in a new person of substance who can be more pragmatic than R R and remember that in India there is no dearth of such people. RR’s tenure is to end, so let him go with his job done. why does he now want to cling on for a second innings. Dear RR enjoy your retirement. I or we wish him best for his future. Bharat mata ki jai.
Surprised that we still believe all the economic wisdom in the world comes in the shape n form of Rajan. While he has clearly continued to hv a poor rapport with the govt, it is also vital to see that he has probably been a stumbling block to Indias rapid rise. Many governors came and went, India is still standing. This governor has no desire to understand the vision of the people as manifested thru the ruling party and is hoping to work as if in a vaccuum. This simply cannot be good news. He believes he is higher than the FM and PM and wants to challenge their vision. How long does he want to stick on in a job where he is not wanted? It would be graceful if he made a polite exit and formed a company with the Aiyar brothers somewhere outside of India, and leave India to find its way up, despite them. Really sorry that SS AA has fallen so hard. Billions may leave only if those billions belong to the dynasty. Nobody elses money is leaving. We will simply turn the page and carry on.
Hats off Ma’am. You just wrote the truth.
#Niveza #Review ::
RBI Governor is really a center pillar of the RBI as well as one of the strongest element of Indian Economy. If he is not given second term, market will witness a crash which will take time to gain the momentum again. Raghuram Rajan is a person who can keep the market trending in north direction with his single statement. He is too knowledgeable and India can’t afford him loosing at any levels. Its true that India will be in better position considering better monsoon and GST favor, but still some one should always be there with ounce of knowledge. He has given everything to re-establish India’s credibility and don’t really think anyone can give better policy than Mr. Raghuram Rajan.
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I wish to Rajan leaves, and market crash – so that I can buy more