In July 2013, when Jet Airways announced a stake sale to Etihad, SP Tulsian was very bullish on Spice Jet. He advised investors to buy truck loads of the stock on the basis that Spice Jet would also soon announce a stake sale to a foreign airline. He promised a target price of Rs. 60 within six months, implying an upside of 33% from the then market price of Rs. 45.
Unfortunately, at that time, nobody had foreseen that Air Asia would tie hands with the Tatas and make a foray into India. When the news was announced, the euphoria surrounding Spice Jet evaporated and the stock price slumped. To make matters worse, the soaring aviation fuel price coupled with the sluggish demand meant that losses mounted and the stock price tumbled to a low of Rs. 12.50 in March 2014.
Then when Spice Jet reported record losses for Q4FY2014, SP Tulsian surfaced again and fervently implored investors to dump the stock at Rs. 17.50 on the logic that Air Asia would make life difficult for Spice Jet. Dayanidhi Maran’s loss in the elections also spooked Tulsian.
However, as luck would have it, Spice Jet again outwitted the wily stock picker. The announcement that the company is looking for a strategic investor and/ or is seeking to sell overseas slots to Qatar Airways sent the stock soaring to Rs. 21.10, a fantastic 24% since SP Tulsian’s sell call.
Now, in hindsight, SP Tulsian ought to have foreseen that after the disastrous Q4 results, the management would try to talk up the stock. The time was not opportune for a sell. It was a tactical error.
Personally, I also made the mistake of getting carried away in the Spice Jet stake sale hype. I bought a huge chunk of the stock and then, when the price started sliding, I bought more to average my cost price. The result is that I have an ugly gash of red in my portfolio where there should have been lush green. I am waiting for the euphoria to reach its’ peak before dumping the stock. Hope I get the chance soon.
My experience with sp tulisan is very bad . His long term calls are actually devoid of inherent fundamental . He is a sort of a trader without putting stoplosses . This is dangerous .
I also have had my fair share of bad experience with S.P. Tulsiyan . He always predicts what will happen with a stock based on short term news and misguide investors and somehow he is able to maintain an image of an expert in eyes of CNBC people. An annual prediction and results reportcard should be published of such kind of predictors.
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
The old airline industry joke – how do you become a millionaire? simple – start as a billionaire in airline industry.
Jokes apart..Question to Arjun – infact 2 Qs 1) I thought that this malady of averaging nonsense only happens to unfortunates like me (I always joke that all I had to do to stop a rally in any stock is for me to buy the stock. The rest gets taken care by iteself and it will then start its predictable path downwards. happens so regularly that at times it looks that I am always too afraid to book any profit and in the averaging saga, end up break even after enough of opportunity losses..most recent example is – Alembic Pharma). I usually get this advice – in the long run, things will be fine. I have tried that too but it has been the same. Coming to the Q – I simply don’t have the knack of catching things at the right price. You seem to be doing this effortlessly so often. What is the trick?
2) I have seen scores of inspiring posts of mega bucks in this great blog but rarely one talks about exit strategy. That is equally important in the ind rotation market like India. can you please throw some light on exit strategies too?
Thx a ton
among these PAID analysts there is something inherent in Pn vijy only…..
we know the big guy who comes in a particular necktie and predict of anystock and his calls all flop
arjun your column has given the best we hope the same in the days to come too
Yes, it is tough to see Red for long.
I used to follow S P Tulsian for long. I noticed in most of the cases his predictions goes wrong. I really wonder, how this is possible for so called big names. SPT is now doubt a big name (could be who speak well get more noticed, so he is). Now a days, when I see SPT comes on news, I simply switch to other channel as I know, I won’t follow him for sure and what he recommend won’t work for sure. My suggestion, better avoid his advise and be happy in life. You need not to follow every one… At least I follow this funda.
S P Tulsyan – I still remember on his advice of Deccan Granite recommendations I bought truck-loads and the Company is no more quoted. It’s high time CNBC removes him from his panel of experts. Even in Spice Jet I have burnt the fingers very badly.
I subcribe to sptulsian as investor but his call like ORCHID CHEMICAL,ANANT RAJ,SINTEX, JPASSOCIATE,LAKSHMI VILLAS BANK,SHREE RENUKA SUGAR,PRAJ IND, UB HOLDING many more during paid period still in loss he is very wise in making people fool. He is now addict in making people fool.
Orchid chemical this year has done well, sintex is doing excellent,even anat raj has done well this year (unless you bought it at all time highs).I am not a fan of this man but I have seen some of his calls on TV channels do well. This year I bought Binani after hearing his advice.(He recommended at 80 I bought at 90, it went to 70 but now its almost 120…not bad at all in my book)
I bought ALOK IND at 24Rs during Diwali of 2011 upon Tulsian recommendation.
Even after 3 years, I am waiting for break even.
One thing is sure.
Do contrarian of whatever Tulsian says. I have strong belief that Tulsian himself does opposite of his recos and creates personal wealth by putting investors / traders on blood bath.
So don’t worry. If you listen him then do the opposite !
Lot of hatred comments about SPT. Well guys seriously you yourself didn`t put a stoploss?. he recommended sugar stock in march. sugar are 300% to 700% up from there February month. He is a fundamentalist. he give reason for stocks to go up or down. I think we should not see the stock first, first see the sector. If the sector is really going to give you returns, first think whether you agree on that or not, consciously. In February he also recommended sagar cement. SPT told that cement consumption in telanga, and north Andhra increased by 150% or near to that. Sagar cement company holds 38% market share in that region. I bought that stock. I doubled my money. SPTulsian has really gave me good returns. Till now his calls didn`t make a loss of a single penny for me. I used my brian and also I keep a very tight stop loss of 4 to 5%. also if I know that the recommended stock is going to fall I sell it and again buy it at lower price. in this way, my number of shares increase.
Hi guys, why so much hatered argument against spt,i fail to understand.i am paid subscriber from last one year.i am in 30% profit and it could be 70% if would have patience on his call…few comments are there on buying truck lode of stocks.spt strickly saying not to buy beyond 5% of your port folio and 15 % on any sector.
He is gem, if you want to subscribe then go ahead..
Not sure why so much of hatred against SP Tulsian. Last 4 years I’m following his advise and getting 25% to 30% profit.
Because by hindsight he seems to be promoting companies in disguise of a expert.