At one time in the not-too-distant-past, Cera Sanitaryware was the crown jewel stock in the portfolio of Dolly Khanna a.k.a Rajiv Khanna.
Dolly held a treasure trove of 146,308 shares of Cera and it lorded over all the other stocks in the illustrious portfolio.
In April 2015, my radar flashed the red alert that Dolly has sold off all/ the majority of her holding in Cera.
I then had a dark sense of foreboding that Cera would be in for some heavy-duty turbulence.
Then, Vijay Kedia also hinted darkly that he is not buying Cera but is instead reducing his holding. “I am now buying ‘safe’ stocks” Kedia said, implying that Cera is an “unsafe” stock owing to its extravagant valuations.
That should have sent alarm bells clanging and I ought to have taken proactive steps. However, as is my wont, I stood there gaping with a befuddled look on my face, not sure of what to do.
Yesterday, when the Q4FY15 results were announced during market hours, the Cera Sanitaryware counter was buzzing with activity with excited punters jostling each other for a better look at the results. Within seconds, the counter had a deserted look. The stock slumped a mammoth 18%, resulting in heavy losses. The punters were walking around with a shell-shocked and dazed look on their faces. The carnage continued today as well.
Worse, the contagion and fear against “high P/E” stocks spread to the Symphony counter with that stock plunging a mammoth 20%.
Almost every other stock registered huge losses yesterday and today.
This is the second time that Dolly Khanna has escaped by the skin of her teeth. Hawkins was one of her all-time favourite stocks. However, when she saw that the stock was not able to get its act together, she dumped the stock. She was perfectly on time because soon thereafter, Hawkins reported poor Q3FY15 results and the stock went tumbling down a massive 18%. It has still not recovered. Any weakness in the Q4FY15 results will send the stock plunging down further.
Now, everyone is waiting with bated breath at the fate of the other “High P/E” stocks like Page Industries and Eicher Motors. These stocks are also quoting at exorbitant valuations. Even the slightest slippage in performance will expose them to disproportionate punishment.
Vijay Kedia is probably right in his advice that the time is ripe for us to avoid high P/E stocks and to find “Safe Stocks” to invest in.
Dolly Khanna is creating a legendary reputation for herself/ himself. Hats off to her clairvoyance
Information or clairvoyance ?
I don’t think she/he has insider info.
I smell something suspicious. Narrow escape twice – Hawkins & Cera – just before result announcement. In both cases, investment was high. Any possibility of inside info? What do you think?
Of-course why a doubt!
Sebi should probe this insider trading by Dolly Khanna & Team!
Hello Mr Arju I feel you are wrong.Dolly Khanna Does not sold her holdings in cera.
My logic is this As per December 2014 total holding of dolly Khanna in Cera is
128590 that is 1.02% of total issued shares (total issued shares of cera till dec 2014 is1,26,54,874). However After January 30 2015 Cera raised Rs70.6 crore from PE fund called Lighthouse Advisors India Pvt by issuisng additional 351,000 equity at a price of Rs 2,011.It takes total issued shares of Cera to
13005874.
Now As per the manadatory disclosure norm by the exchange.The company has to disclose the names of shareholders holding more than 1% of total shares.
As per this Dolly khanna need 130058 shares to be counted as a shareholder holding more than 1%. Now she didn’t. It mean she may have holding in cera or she may not.
Superb sense. Better sense prevail. You made a good point.
Yes you guys are right. Most likely she has not sold a single share in Cera. There were only 7 individuals that owned more than 20,000 shares in Cera as per Dec 2014 shareholding pattern. Three of these guys including Dolly Khanna owned more than 1% shares. As per the shareholding pattern of March 2015, the number of individuals holding more than 20,000 shares still remains the same at 7. Together, their shareholding has fallen from 7.08% to 6.47%. Among these guys Vijay Kedia has already reduced his holding by 0.4%. Thus remaining 6 shareholders has seen their holding drop by 0.2% cumulatively, which is exactly 3% of their overall holding and that is attributed to the equity dilution done by the company in the last quarter.
Most likely her holding remains at the same level in Cera and it is now close to 0.98% or so. The author has just gotten unnecessarily excited by not seeing her name in the shareholding pattern of the company and did not pay attention to the equity dilution part.
Yes that might be the case.Because of capex these biggies might be thinking they wont get much better result in future from cera because of its very high PE and strecth valuation so its better to park from here to another small or mid cap.
This may be an incorrect article.
Exchange has not announced her departure from the stock
symphony went 20% down..
before making any comment let us luk from where to where sumphony reached and the duration it took before making andy quick conclusion.
if one day behaviour of a stock is enough i wonder of those commenting on this script
time has proved of high pe stock to buy or sell
to have difference in view is gud
while respecting their views i hold my view
sincerely
jacob
This is an incorrect article Arjun. Please note that point of Cera raised Rs70.6 crore from PE fund called Lighthouse Advisors India Pvt by issuisng additional 351,000 equity at a price of Rs 2,011. Obviously, due to this Dolly’s holding in Cera would have dropped off to lower than 1%. Now you are assuming that Dolly sold partly/fully Cera shares.
I believe that means Dolly Khanna is not into insider trading after all. 🙂
How u know cera march shareholding
Hello Friends,
I have a question, like how she (Dolly Khanna)knows the future results like Cera & Hawkins ? is it the leakage in the insider information for specially for “Dolly Khanna”!
Why it is happening? or anything else?
How an we make conclusion that one bad quarter is enough to exit of stalwarts.
Many bigies who enter early never sold shares even if they post 6-8 quarter bad results.
May be even if dolly exited it may be because he/she might have found another cera in making and might be seeing that from here no more high is possible in next couple of year.
@sohil , well said
if DK is to exit based on bad quarter she is not a value investor
jacob
HI Arjun,
please have a report on this news on RJ sterling holidays:
wap.business-standard.com/article/markets/jhunjhunwala-sells-rs-67-cr-worth-shares-in-sterling-holidays-115042400961_1.html
Is dolly khanna male of female?????????? U use ‘her’ when writing about dolly
Dolly is female. But you can think dolly as male as well! :). Bcoz her husband just use her name.
dolly the sheep was the first cloned animal in the world and the world will always remember her. dolly the bull (dolly khanna) is the best investor in the world and the world will always remember her. Dolly ji aagey badho, hum aapkey saath hai.
She already entered into similar kinda stock from same sector i.e. Asian Granito …how we can ignore this gem?? any thoughts?
I have read something about Dolly Khanna or Rajiv Khanna whoever is making the investments, check the history of Kwality Dairy , how volatile the stock’s price movements were during the times the ice cream business was sold to HUL, I am sure small/retail investors in their own company lost terribly…if you look closely most of her holdings run up on on sentiments or “hype” , not fundamentals…if she / he manages to sell her holdings just ahead of bad results its not clairvoyance or skills
Dear Bholu
Rajiv khanna own Kwality Walls not Kwality CMP 44 company
Both are different companies.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwality_Wall%27s
Kwality Walls is owned by HUL, check the article on Dolly Khanna which was posted on this forum
Kwality ltd is not a good pick for return. May not go down muh.
did you click on wikipedia.
Rajiv khanna owns it back in 1995
BHOLU
It was mentioned in article shared in this forum itself that Rajiv Khanna who actually makes the investment decision in name of his wife Dolly was the promoter of Kwality Dairy, ….if I am not mistaken they sold their ice division to Hindustan Lever…that is time the stock was very volatile and ran on hype (like stocks in Khannas’ portfolio) and then collapsed…since then I doubt if Kwality Dairy has ever been on radar of any investor …
Cera is still a good pick as it is 40% down from 52wh. When market rebounds to higher levels, Cera can give 100% returns.. (Dolly Khanna will make you lose a fortune)
Understand why she is selling, instead of blindly following!
why rajiv khanna is using his wife’s name(dolly) for investing? why not his own name. maybe due to luck factor. god knows, also maybe cera fell due to dollys exit not the other way round!!
even rj uses rekha his wife for luck factor
Their are so many other stocks which can be cera sanitary or pokrana
Aro Granite and Prism Cement (Holds 100% stake in jhonson)
Rajiv Khanna also invests but never increase his holding to 1%.