Nifty @ 24700 : Shifting orbit on election thrust…
Indian equities are poised to enter CY24 on a buoyant note. As we enter election year, we present our prognosis for CY24 and reiterate our CY30 target of 50000 presented in CY23 edition.
Our prognosis is a culmination of triangulation model which projects Nifty CY24 target of 24700 while key support is placed at 18900. Sectoral leadership and our bottom up stock analysis indicate glaring resemblance with CY04-CY07 bull run.
✓ Historically, equity returns in General Election Year has been positive on nine out of eleven occasions (Median 17%)
✓ Empirically (since past four decades) Fourth year of a Decade has always been rewarding with Median 15% returns
✓ Large caps, which have been laggards, to catchup post couple of years underperformance
✓ Capital Goods & Infra, PSU, Metal, Energy turning to be leaders after decadal underperformance, while BFSI and IT would maintain their upward trajectory
✓ Technically, global market setups becomes more supportive as US and European indices are coming out of two years of hiatus