India’s jewellery market is shifting from wedding-led purchases towards lifestyle and self- expression-driven consumption, creating a large opportunity for design-led and organised players like BlueStone. It has already built an integrated platform to capture this opportunity where customer interactions on its omni channel platform are translated to insights by its tech stack and AI, which drives design, which are then converted into finished products by inhouse manufacturing within 3–4 weeks. In addition, unit economics are strong and stores achieve breakeven within 3–4 months and profitability improves as they mature. Management highlighted that older store cohorts generate higher inventory turns and significantly superior RoIC, while existing manufacturing capacity is already sufficient to support INR 120bn revenue. Against this backdrop, management is targeting INR 120bn revenue (~50% CAGR over FY26–30) and ~14.7% pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin by FY30, driven by expansion to ~705 stores, ~30% SSSG and operating leverage. In comparison, our estimates remain more conservative at ~26% revenue CAGR over FY26–29E and 310bps EBITDA margin expansion, leaving scope for earnings upgrades and valuation re-rating if management successfully executes its roadmap.
Vision FY30: Management is targeting INR 120bn revenue by FY30 (~50% CAGR over FY26–30) and ~14.7% pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin, driven by ~20% annual store additions, ~30% SSSG, expansion of the store network to ~705 stores, and 20.7% store-level EBITDA margin. Margin expansion is expected to be supported by operating leverage, with ad spend and corporate overheads expected to decline to 4.6% and 1.6% of sales, respectively, from ~6.6% and ~4.6% currently. Management also plans to selectively expand through the FOFO model to accelerate penetration in Tier-2 and smaller cities. While management’s aspirations are ambitious, our estimates remain more conservative at ~26% revenue CAGR over FY26–29E, driven by 237 store additions and mid-teen SSSG, along with 310bps EBITDA margin expansion over FY26–29E. Consequently, successful execution of the FY30 roadmap could provide meaningful upside to our forecasts and drive further earnings upgrades and valuation re-rating.
