Greenlam Industries has come under pressure after a weaker-than-expected Q1FY27 performance, but prominent investor Akash Bhanshali appears to be using the decline to increase his exposure to the company. Meanwhile, ICICI Direct has retained a bullish view, assigning a ₹300 target price against a CMP of ₹240.
Greenlam Industries Ltd. has attracted renewed investor attention after Akash Bhanshali increased his stake in the company from 3.23% to 4.44%. His investment vehicle, Blue Diamond, also raised its holding from 6.98% to 7.96%.
In addition, Akhil, Vallabh and Meenu Bhanshali collectively hold 3.58% in Greenlam Industries.
The increase in holdings comes at a time when the stock has been under pressure following the company’s Q1FY27 results. While the quarterly numbers showed weakness in laminate volumes and continued losses in plywood, several underlying indicators improved sharply, including consolidated EBITDA margins, particleboard performance and profitability.
This divergence between near-term earnings pressure and improving business fundamentals has also led ICICI Direct to maintain a positive outlook on the company.
Greenlam stock under pressure after Q1FY27
Greenlam Industries reported consolidated revenue of ₹796.7 crore in Q1FY27, representing an 18.2% year-on-year increase.
However, the core laminate business remained relatively weak. Laminate revenue rose 7.4% YoY to ₹596.1 crore, while volumes declined 6.4% YoY to approximately 4.62 million sheets.
The decline in volumes was partly attributed to timing-related issues. According to management, export shipments worth around ₹27 crore were deferred because of container and vessel availability issues, along with higher freight costs.
Despite lower volumes, laminate realizations increased sharply by 13.6% to ₹1,240 per sheet, helping cushion the impact on profitability.
The plywood and allied segment performed better, with revenue increasing 20.4% YoY to ₹106 crore. Volumes grew 19% to around 1.66 million square metres.
The biggest growth came from the Panel & Allied segment, where revenue surged 205.2% YoY to ₹94.6 crore, albeit on a low base. Particleboard volumes jumped 167.4% to 41,418 CBM, while realization increased 14.6% to ₹22,764 per CBM.
Margins show meaningful improvement
One of the more encouraging aspects of Greenlam’s Q1FY27 performance was the improvement in operating profitability.
Consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 10.2%, improving by approximately 210 basis points YoY.
The laminate segment reported an EBITDA margin of 13.9%, up around 70 basis points from the year-ago period.
The plywood business continued to remain loss-making, but its EBITDA loss narrowed to ₹5.2 crore, compared with a loss of ₹8.6 crore in Q1FY26.
More importantly, the Panel & Allied segment turned EBITDA positive for the first time, reporting EBITDA of ₹3.4 crore and a margin of 3.6%.
At the consolidated level, Greenlam reported PAT of ₹21.2 crore, compared with a loss of ₹15.7 crore in Q1FY26.
Thus, while the headline laminate volume performance was disappointing, the company’s profitability trajectory showed signs of improvement.
Akash Bhanshali increases his exposure
Against this backdrop, the increase in stake by Akash Bhanshali and Blue Diamond is noteworthy.
Akash Bhanshali’s holding has risen from 3.23% to 4.44%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points.
Blue Diamond’s holding has increased from 6.98% to 7.96%, taking its stake close to 8%.
The combined holdings of Akhil, Vallabh and Meenu Bhanshali stand at 3.58%.
While a higher stake by an investor does not by itself guarantee future stock performance, such accumulation can be viewed as a sign of continued conviction in the company’s longer-term prospects—particularly when it occurs during a period of share-price weakness.
The timing is especially interesting because Greenlam’s current weakness appears to be driven partly by near-term factors, while its newer businesses are showing signs of moving toward profitability.
ICICI Direct sees 25% upside
ICICI Direct has maintained a BUY recommendation on Greenlam Industries with a 12-month target price of ₹300.
Against the current market price of ₹240, the target implies approximately 25% upside.
The brokerage believes the company’s growth momentum should improve going forward and expects consolidated revenue to grow at a 14.9% CAGR between FY26 and FY28E, reaching approximately ₹4,030 crore.
It also estimates EBITDA margins of 12.3% in FY27E and 13.7% in FY28E.
ICICI Direct’s valuation is based on 30x FY28E EPS.
Laminate business could recover
The laminate business remains the key contributor to Greenlam’s revenue and profitability, making its recovery critical for the investment case.
Management has maintained a positive outlook for FY27 and is targeting approximately 18% overall revenue growth.
For laminates specifically, management expects 10-12% growth in FY27, arguing that the weakness witnessed during Q1 was largely due to timing-related export shipment deferments rather than a structural slowdown.
If deferred exports normalize and domestic demand remains healthy, laminate volumes could recover in the coming quarters.
Greenlam also remains a major player in the global laminate market. The company has an estimated 17.8% share of India’s organised laminate market and more than 29% share of laminate exports, according to the ICICI Direct report.
Plywood and particleboard offer additional growth drivers
Greenlam’s investment story is increasingly extending beyond laminates.
The plywood segment is still in the process of scaling up. Management expects capacity utilization to reach around 50% in FY27, with the business expected to achieve quarterly EBITDA breakeven by the end of FY27.
The particleboard business is showing even stronger operating momentum.
Capacity utilization is expected to average around 70% in FY27, while management has set a long-term EBITDA margin target of 18-20% by FY29, once optimal utilization is achieved.
The first-time EBITDA profitability of the Panel & Allied segment in Q1FY27 could therefore be an important early indicator of the potential operating leverage in this business.
Deleveraging could strengthen the balance sheet
Another important part of the Greenlam story is debt reduction.
Despite planned capital expenditure of approximately ₹130-135 crore in FY27, management intends to reduce net debt by around ₹100 crore.
The company does not currently plan significant capacity expansion beyond FY27. This could allow future free cash flow to be directed increasingly toward debt reduction.
Continued deleveraging could eventually provide greater financial flexibility while improving the company’s ability to generate sustainable earnings and cash flows.
The bigger picture
Greenlam’s Q1FY27 results may have disappointed investors, particularly because of the decline in laminate volumes. However, the numbers also contained several positive signals: strong consolidated revenue growth, higher realizations, improving margins, narrowing plywood losses and the first-ever EBITDA profit from the Panel & Allied segment.
The increase in holdings by Akash Bhanshali and Blue Diamond adds another interesting dimension to the story.
The key question for investors now is whether Q1’s laminate weakness was genuinely temporary and whether the plywood and particleboard businesses can continue moving toward profitability.
If management delivers on its FY27 growth targets, improves utilization in the newer businesses and continues reducing debt, Greenlam could see a meaningful improvement in earnings over the next two years.
ICICI Direct is betting on that recovery, with a BUY rating and ₹300 target price, implying around 25% potential upside from ₹240.
For investors, therefore, Greenlam represents a classic near-term earnings weakness versus longer-term operating improvement story. The coming quarters will be crucial in determining whether the company’s improving margins and new growth engines can outweigh the current pressure on its core laminate volumes.
