IDES OF MARCH : BULLS CHARGE AHEAD
Sonia Shenoy was among the first to announce that the Sensex had crossed the historic benchmark level of 38,000.
She marked the crossing of the pivotal level with a crisp tweet.
Sensex reclaims 38000 after 6 months
— Sonia Shenoy (@_soniashenoy) March 15, 2019
According to eminent experts in technical analysis, the aforesaid levels of 11,000 and 38,000 on the Nifty and Sensex respectively are zones of stiff resistance and support.
It will be virtually impossible for the Bears to dislodge the Bulls from these exalted levels unless some event of cataclysmic consequence happens.
Surabhi Upadhyay pointed out that the super-surge in the Indices is because there is a massive inflow of dollars into the Country from deep-pocketed foreign investors.
3.5% this week; 6% so far in March… RED HOT… thats what the gush of dollars can do.. Lot of people feeling left out?#Nifty#StockMarket #Bulls
— Surabhi Upadhyay (@SurabhiUpadhyay) March 15, 2019
It is notable that Sunil Singhania had already alerted us that the steep plunge in interest rates in the USA and other developed Countries would leave foreign investors with no choice but to make a beeline for Indian shores.
“Huge flows into risk assets including emerging markets and India can be expected,” he had said as far back as in November 2018, with the air of a clairvoyant.
US 10-year yields fall below 3%!
One more concern behind. With US$ also now at the margin weakening, huge flows into risk assets including emerging markets and India can be expected.
— Sunil Singhania (@SunilBSinghania) November 29, 2018
It is also notable that despite the steep surge, Indian indices are still lagging behind their foreign counterparts.
In fact, while the MSCI EM and MSCI Asia Ex Japan have given returns of 9.5% and 10.3% YTD respectively in 2019, the Indian indices have under-performed with a gain of only 6.2%.
This clearly implies that we can expect the Sensex and Nifty to surge even more.
IDES OF MARCH : BULLS CHARGE AHEAD
So far this monthNifty Up 6.2%
Nifty Midcap Up 6.9%
Nifty Small Cap Up 11%
Nifty Bank Up 10%#BANKNIFTY #nifty50 #stocks— Surabhi Upadhyay (@SurabhiUpadhyay) March 15, 2019
But
STILL AN UNDERPERFOMER IN 2019YTD
MSCI India Up 6.2%
MSCI EM Up 9.5%
MSCI Asia Ex Jap Up 10.3%#Dow Down 10.2%#Nifty #BANKNIFTY #nifty50— Surabhi Upadhyay (@SurabhiUpadhyay) March 15, 2019
Indians are masters of ‘Jugaad‘: Herald van der Linde
Herald van der Linde, the Head of Equities at HSBC, is regarded as an expert on Asian stocks.
He is fondly described as “The Flying Dutchman” by his peers.
Naturally, he is fond of Indians.
“India has an amazing ability to deal with difficult circumstances. I think there is a word for it – jugaad. If things don’t work, they always find a way around it,” he said, a smile writ large on his face.
In fact, when everyone had his or her knickers in a twist owing to the dreaded demonetisation, Linde was unperturbed and cool as a cucumber.
“People will go back to normal lives in the next couple of weeks,” he had said in a dismissive tone, implying that too much was being made out of a non-event.
“India top bet among Asia,” he had then opined with immense confidence, sending the clear signal that we should take advantage of the crisis to grab stocks aggressively.
Sensex will cross 40,300 by December 2019
Now, Herald van der Linde has predicted that the Sensex will cross the never seen before level of 40,300 by December 2019.
HSBC's Herald van der Linde is overweight on India with Sensex index target at 40,300 for year-end 2019.
Read: https://t.co/Tvoc7vVsbo pic.twitter.com/wurbZZxcjo
— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) March 15, 2019
HSBC Asia Strategist says.. Its Time for India
Turn OW from Neutral, Dec 19 Sensex target 40300
+ve based on relative vals, high earnings growth & low FII exposure
Key risks – surprise election outcome & higher oil prices@_anujsinghal @_soniashenoy @CNBCTV18News @latha_venkatesh pic.twitter.com/GdJx5el5tM— Nimesh Shah (@nimeshscnbc) March 15, 2019
The prediction is based on solid reasoning and rationale.
He has pointed out that there will be a consensus earnings per share growth of 24 percent in 2019.
It is elementary that an increase in the EPS automatically leads to an increase in the stock price.
This is also borne out by the fact that the consumer discretionary and financials sectors are growing the fastest in the country.
The growth is evident from three factors:
(i) Normalisation of credit costs and market share gains;
(ii) Retailers expect strong sales growth;
(iii) Automobile sector expects earnings recovery, given lower inventories and price hikes.
Also, the oil prices are benign and likely to stay below $80 per barrel.
As regards the election results, there are no surprises because all the Gurus have already predicted that NAMO will be sworn in for the second time.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says PM Modi will be back and BJP will surprise with its election tally | https://t.co/KMnSzye3CM pic.twitter.com/arPbe5Xbgy
— EconomicTimes (@EconomicTimes) February 6, 2019
#EXCLUSIVE | Here's why Narayana Murthy believes continuity of the Modi Govt will be good for India@Infosys @chandrarsrikant #MurthyToETNOW @PMOIndia @narendramodi @Infosys_nmurthy #Elections2019 #Elections pic.twitter.com/9HD8BB1pqk
— ET NOW (@ETNOWlive) November 14, 2018
"India would have a long runway of "strong economic growth" if Modi return to power" – @FFH_TO https://t.co/0AwlJLgrNA
— Porinju Veliyath (@porinju) March 12, 2019
10 reasons why I believe @narendramodi is the clear front runner at the start of the race to win the 2019 elections.. do read and share if you like.. @DailyO_ https://t.co/SuKyyZjD9B
— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) March 11, 2019
*FII's Buying is indicating that present govt is coming back to power.*
FII's identified it in 2014 as well that Modi is coming to power and rally started 5 months ahead of Elections.
Let's see if FII's are right in predicting Elections Result this time as well.
— Ravindra Naveen FnO (@FraiseFnO) March 9, 2019
It is notable that Herald van der Linde is not alone in predicting such exalted levels for the Sensex.
Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley has already predicted that the Sensex will touch 42,000 by September 2019.
Good morning! Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley
Raises Sensex Target To 42,000 For Sep 2019 From 36,000 In June
Says Indian Equities Continue To Be In An Uptrend
Adding SBI, Apollo Hospitals & Prestige Estates To Portfolio @rndx1— Sonia Shenoy (@_soniashenoy) September 14, 2018
Ridham Desai has also cherry-picked 11 top-quality mid-cap stocks for us to buy now (see Ridham Desai Of Morgan Stanley Recommends 11 Top-Quality Mid-Cap Stocks).
16 stocks to buy now
Herald van der Linde and his ace team at HSBC have meticulously studied five bull and four bear markets and identified the best sectors and stocks.
The final shortlist of 16 stocks includes fail-safe blue-chip large-cap and mid-cap stocks like Avenue Supermarts, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, GAIL, Divi’s Lab, Axis Bank, Jubilant Food, Bajaj Auto, Kajaria Ceramics, Indusind Bank, ITC, Hindalco, Prestige Estates, Godrej Properties and HPCL.
HSBC wants investors to prepare for the next leg of the bull run in Indian equities, reports @darshanvmehta1.https://t.co/3GWSVOQ7SD
— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) March 15, 2019
HSBC on India
Sensex index target is 40,300, Overweight India
Buy Stocks: Avenue Supermarts, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, GAIL, Divi's Lab, Axis Bank, Jubilant Food, Bajaj Auto
Kajaria Ceramics, Indusind Bank, ITC, Hindalco, Prestige Estates
Godrej Properties, HPCL— Darshan Mehta (@darshanvmehta1) March 15, 2019
See also:
All these so-called experts were sleeping all these days…………….suddenly when market rallies they come with their imaginations ………………
So true that
I am disappointed that 40K figure is given. Porinju said, bull run has just began. The article should have said of sensex reaching 100000.