Warren Buffett, the World’s greatest investor, rightly said that the fundamental rule of investment is that “investors should never lose money”.
What Warren Buffett means is that we have to be conservative in our investment philosophy. We must always err on the side of caution. If there is even a slight risk to the investment thesis, we must take defensive measures to protect our capital.
Viewed in the light of this sage advice from Warren Buffett, the attitude of the local gurus to the warnings issued by legendary visionaries like Jim Rogers and George Soros is indefensible.
The Gurus, comprising of Nilesh Shah, Porinju Veliyath, Samir Arora, Sandip Sabhrawal and others, united as one to trash the fears expressed by the legends.
Nilesh Shah wrote a point-by-point rebuttal to all the issues raised by Jim Rogers. He also mocked Jim Rogers by urging him to “consider investing in equity mutual funds as most of us are outperforming the benchmark indices by large margins”. Porinju and Sandip Sabhrawal attacked Jim Rogers on twitter. While Sabhrwal contemptuously called Rogers a “one-hit wonder”, Porinju was at his vituperative best: “Dumb Rogers ‘exits India’ without really entering; holds world record in getting almost every prediction wrong!” Samir Arora also taunted Jim Rogers with his classic one-liners, which were laced with wit and sarcasm.
At that time, the unity of the Gurus was very inspiring to us. We were impressed at their advice to us to “ignore the noise and stay invested” despite all the adversities that the economy was passing through.
Today, we see that the failure to heed the advice of the Legends and to take counter-defensive measures has cost us dearly. Our portfolios have taken a severe battering. Worse, our confidence has suffered a major dent. It will be a long time before we get our swagger back.
In hindsight, the Gurus ought to have taken a cue from Warren Buffett and advised us to stay cautious. They ought to have said “We don’t know whether the gloomy predictions by Jim Rogers etc will come true or not. However, it is advisable to be cautious and raise some cash so that we are not caught unawares should the predictions come true and the markets plunge”.
We have also to blame ourselves for throwing caution to the winds. We were also naïve in believing that NAMO would single-handed be able to steer the nation out of the mess that it has been in for the past several decades.
Anyway, to their credit, the Gurus are now candidly admitting that they read the situation wrong.
Porinju Veliyath has, as usual, taken the lead and issued a heart-felt apology to Jim Rogers:
I sincerely apologise for my tweet on 2-Sept-15 & retracting negative comments on Veteran Market Guru, @AllJimRogers https://t.co/D2Kml2miiJ
— Porinju Veliyath (@porinju) February 20, 2016
Porinju’s gesture of humility was well received by his vast legion of fans and followers. Several rushed to compliment him for his stellar act of statesmanship.
The other Gurus are not as forthright as Porinju though they are also veering around to the same view. Sandip Sabhrawal claimed that he was “bearish” earlier owing to the negatives in the economy. Samir Arora said that he is “willing to laugh now also” in response to a query on why he had laughed at Jim Rogers’ bullishness on gold. “i like laughing rather than feeling sad” he added, suggesting that there are circumstances to be sad for laughing at Jim Rogers.
From our perspective, the important learning experience from the bitter episode is that we should never be over-confident. In fact, the unbridled optimism of the Gurus is itself a sign of caution. Instead, we should pay keen attention to the contra calls and messages of discontent from various stake holders in the economy and take appropriate defensive action and not be overexposed to equities at any point of time!
My portfolio is quite concentrated and has been battered 50 % .. If this stays for long.. I will be a bikari.. i am holding 0% cash
Your comment is funny. The railway budget will be presented tomorrow. Hence to use an example, there is always light at the end of tunnel. However I have started a thread for retail investors. You can have look if it works.
To make you feel better. Many investors have lost money in this market crash as well. I would advise you hold out and prey that Modi has not fooled the entire nation. Don’t sell now. The evidence however is pointing to a great blunder by us voters. It is no fault of the PM. We have put our hopes and expectations in someone who is clearly not able to deliver. The evidence suggest so far. It is looking more like Manmohan Singh would have been a better PM, and I can give not great insult than that.
If GST, a concrete budget, PSU banks given priority, textile incentives, and pharma incentives, don’t get top notch news after the budget, than sorry, but India will not perform. You will have to wait for the next general election, vote out the PM and look for alternatives in terms of AAP party or starting a movement for youths and business people to start an entirely new party.
Yes ,no body predicted Modi non performance better than Jim Roger.What ever was left ,a non performer CM of Haryana has done by creating a situation for burning of Haryana ,whose only achievement till date is a burnt Haryana and divided society in UP , Delhi ,Haryana. & Rajasthan. By not taking every one along BJP govt in Haryana has ends up destroying harmony of Haryana with this leading state going backward, sadly with every one accusing other party or caste for the mess.
The problem is not predicting Modi’s performance but senselessly expecting him to turnaround the economy in a very short period. So the mistake is not Modi’s, but to blame ourselves for not doing proper work. I dont understand why investors are pessimistic now. I feel it is an opportunity now to buy high-quality stocks at reasonable valuations.
A word of advise. If only Modi will be able to deliver will you see a turnaround. If not, with the world numbers looking very bad, India will not survive. Understand the situation buddy. We were wrong, I can accept it. It is just a shame that Modi was so ineffective.
Show me the real gdp number, modi govt. has modified the gdp benchmark calculation for that reason we are seeing higher gdp.
Now just give me a clear picture about fdi investment in defence: merely 61 lakhs(less than the price of a bmw).
gst: no
reform: no
road construction: no
power generation: no
aur kitna time lagega? Oil dropped from $110 to $30, aur kya chahia?
jharu bhi mar liya, but pehele pocket m paisa toh aye?
black money kab ayega?
Wake AP,
please read newspaper on status of road construciton and infra develeopemnt, power generation and mining .
From where did you realized no road construction and no power ?
I challenge you to prove your points . Please do not post anything
without any knowledge .
Since you already know the GDP number, can you please share the REAL GDP numbers as per your knowledge .
Also please provide evidence how giverments cheated us by modifying GDP number .
By the way do you understand the GDP numbers ?
Thanks,
Dear friends we all know its a temporary phase and we need to stay invested.Same people will quote “how would you have gained if you remained invested”
Finally people are admitting that Modi cannot do anything. Earlier they were confident with his 56 inch chest.
No body was knowing that Modi has got his inch tap wrong, when he claimed 56 inxh chest.
How has India performed compared to other stock markets. Jim Rogers is a big fan of China. Losses in China have been greater than losses here. The downturn is not because of Modi Government but due to world shocks and FII pulling out from all emerging markets. Come back in one year and we will talk about how much stock market has gone up from today. We would have gone down a lot more under UPA government.
Economy is not for gamblers.Did modi ask you to buy share when his govt came to power.Come on think like an investor not as trader
Good point. Modi has no influence on Indian prosperity and industry. His leadership has no effect on Indian economy.
Amit
“Economy is not for gamblers.Did modi ask you to buy share when his govt came to power.Come on think like an investor not as trader”
Even Modi did not ask us to think like an investor not as trader!!!
This comment shows Modi could not deliver anything?
So far he could not but wait and see for the good in budget
Also don’t forget the fact that reforms are started in India much earlier, much before anyone think of BJP coming to the political senerio of india.
Also don’t forget the fact we are stepping on a strong base and that the main point still investors are active and their confidence is on the stong base which is not the contribution of BJP or Modi
Still, beleive in India’s strong base and hopefully investors could achieve some thing may be not in near future but in the long run
Yes Modi did,by saying Ache Din Ane Wale hai( for me Ache Din will come with market performing) and Sabka sath and Sabka Vikash( If he had done it then why people are on road in North India fighting on caste lines and burning their own state)
Dear Kharbji,
reservation politics is not new to India .
Its been happening in Rajasthan and Haryana, maharashtra from very long years , please dont blame modi for every issue . Did modi asked them to burn the state for reservation ? And what do you expect from goveremrnt ?
Its loose, loose situation for goverment . If they use police force, its atrocity, if they dont , then they are not doing their job well .
We are always here to criticize modi for everything .
Can you please be specific , what you are expecting from Modi ?
Please dont say that these reservation stir is because of modi .
Thanks,
Porinju Veliyath @porinju
I sincerely apologise for my tweet on 2-Sept-15 & retracting negative comments on Veteran Market Guru, @AllJimRogers
By this tweet porinju oveturned his prevailing “opinion” about Modi Govt? Waaah what was claims about Modi? He was bull on India for 25 years!!!! now he change his views on his fancy stocks as well. Does we need such so called fund managers? It is better never follow such newgen fund managers rather go with fundamentally good stocks.
porinju now realize what modi deliver so far? still not let others roll their brain for him which is already started in india. The public has started rolling brain on Modi’s contributions to indian economy and the results of this rolling will soon be visible
Rubbish Article, this is the problem with these guys, you can’t question Jim, hence throwing towel on the person you know ! Jim said at the peak of oil Mania that —-Rogers provided another cherry of a headline for the BBC last week, saying oil “will probably go over $200 a barrel.”—When oil lost more than 75% from his bullish stand, You never questioned him, but the guy who bullish on 9k is bullish on 7k and you are writing about his stand !!!
Those who questioned had reverted now in tweets See the above tweets of porinj
And now everybody is an expert. Modi is not performing, Modi is ineffective, Modi has cheated public, etc, etc. When managing a family of 3 or 4 and its finances can be challenging and can take years to reach a better financial level, just think about the number of things that need to be done for number of years, for things to take a nation to a better level. Not even two years after a government is elected people in this forum feel cheated, disappointed and what not. Obviously these people haven’t followed history until before the current government was elected.
You are blaming the gardener for saplings not growing, but you don’t want to see that the saplings are being looked after and have a great chance of being mighty trees. Oh yes, there are a lot of pests who have already done their best to destroy these saplings when they were given a chance to be the gardener, but now blame the present gardener! 60 years vs 7 years. And people refuse to see that.
Its unfortunate to see Jim rogers blaming modi for fastest growing economy in the world .
When the entire global economy is under performing we are blaming modi .
Please note down my words, its a matter of couple of quarters and this forum will be posting how Jim rogers was wrong in Judging India.
If some one is exiting India as on today, he do not understand the economy and how it works .
Arjun please post some realistic articles to boost the moral of small investors . Crashes are normal in all markets and it happened previously and it will happen in future also .
Now let me put my experience .
I bough Sanghavi movers during 2012 , averaged down to 50 rs, it ran to 400+ and now also 250+ .
I bought Indiabull housing at 190+ during 2012, it went to 800+, now 550+ and I earn a dividend of 36+ rupess every year .
I bought HSIL during same timeframe at average 100, it went to 450+ and now also its 250+
Bottom line is buy good businesses when everyone is posting negative message as if economy is never going to recover .
Stock market is meant to go up . We have seen dot com crash, subprime crash and lot many crashes. What we are seeing now is absolutely normal . This is the lifetime opportunity to make fortune for sure .
Most unfortunate thing is instead of posting some realistic articles, we are continuously seeing negative articles . We are the fastest growing economy in the world and its going to only improve going forward .
Regards,
Is stock market the only indicator of the performance of PM. It is shame on us that since we lost our money due to overoptimism we blame the PM who is day and night struggling to empower our nation.
Seems all of us have gone blind and turned off our faces to the achievements in last 02 years by our PM. Instlead of blaming PM please improve your money management & investment skills.
Exactly ,
good companies are still reporting good results and they are not affected much .
Peoples bought cooked up stories which happens in every bull run and now blaming government which is working real hard to clean the mess .
I have never seen any investors blaming previous governments, even when there were record breaking scams . Suddenly everyone who lost money started blaming modi as if he is only person who need to work to make us money .
Worst thing is no one blaming dirty politics holding GST and so many bills back .
Thanks,
Positive articles will mislead the investors because the reality is that, we are not in bull market and of course it is a bear market and why we need positive articles now ? to hide the harsh realities we face now ?
I am adding my “2 cents”. It is humble of Porinju to accept that Jim Rogers made a correct prediction. I really do not know if Jim Rogers made any investments in Indian markets and to be frank 2 years is not enough time. But he did make a right call and certainly Porinju has conceded that. Now to say Modi govt. has failed is a overstatement . It has certainly fallen short of the high expectations and some of the recent incidents have definitely been embarrassing. But nobody can say that govt. has not tried. And there has been no case of corruption. Yet I do concede that the government does need to improve its performance.
Great Porinju!!
From the end?
I know the great Porinju. But who’s Jim Rogers? That said, absolute top article. Would recommend 9/11
Absolute crap content. Not that I liked it earlier. But it’s funny to read. Keep posting. Cheers!
Dear AshishK,
Show me the GDP no. as per the earlier method used for the GDP calculation.
In terms of road construction, not yet to be started.
What about GST? Black money?
I am a fan of Modi but that doesn’t mean I should not point out the wrongs.
Hawa m baat nehi banta hai. Ground m kab kaam hoga?
Oil price has dropped by 66% but in the price has been cut only by 16%, why?
If you calculate Oil @$50 then also there is a huge scope of price cut, but why we are not getting the real benefit?
Don’t follow blindly .
Well said AP
Dear AP,
Highway construciton speed is close to 16kms per day from earlier 3kms/day with a target of 30 kms/day . And these are proved figures .
Also I will request you to go through ET survey posted yesterday to understand efforts by government .
Me too NOT a blind follower of Modi, I did criticized on GST and hike to non working sarkari babus .
But I feel using windfall gain from drop in crude is the game changer strategy by government. All of us agree that there is no corruption with this windfall gain . So this money is going to used for infra development and many such things .
This will be master stroke for sure . Apologies if I have hurt you in any way .
Lets hope for best of our Indian economy. Lets pray all criticism is proved wrong and quicker steps taken by government .
Thanks,
We Indians are expert giving credit or blaming others. We don’t do anything… God does, Govt. does Modi does. etc. This is your money and you are to blame or credit for it’s management. Have you checked Jim roger’s life time statements? I have seen many of those Gurus giving wrong advices. Just note their statement and you will find the truth. If we use our common sense we can get better results than those gurus.
Dear Arjun,
since you posted a article on evaluating our PM by JIM Rogers , can I request you to post a article on Our economy evaluation by our own ET survey ?
Please read the survey on path-breaking initiatives by government and a extremely bullish outlook of the Indian economy .
Can you please post article on ET survey , if we are done enough with criticism of the government ?
I bet lot of small investors will regret to stay away from market after reading all negative articles in just couple of quarters .
Thanks,
Looks like you’re Prashant from the forum. I hope you do realise the difference between economic survey and ET survey.
You lost me at “ET survey”
Dear Friends,
It really cuts a sorry figure to see that everyone wants “PM” to benefit him, while sitting pretty at home, throwing money at any gamble, not understanding dynemics of investing, and throwing blames for losses to someone else ! We all had enough chances to make money even in this market – it is the extreme greed that has turned many investors to losses.
If we analyse carefully, there have been multibaggers in large numbers in last two years. PM, or anybody else, did not prevent us to sell at least a part, and be safe in investing. And this opportunity was available for quite a long time !
Individual mistakes, leading to frustation is the reason of outbursts on this forum against a “never before Government”. No major corruption issue has surfaced, many structural changes already done, many still in pipeline. But those with extreme greed are very nervous. Whay can we not see that DBT has resulted in huge no of bogus gas connection weeded out ? And now its turn for kerosene ! 20 million new bank accounts have included so many poors in mainstream banking. Roads and railway are being built at a never before speed. NPAs in PS Banks is a combination of global factors, worsened by 60 years legacy of favouring ineffecient and corrupt promoters (add to Connivance with polititians). Though steps are being initiated by the Government with strong resolve, it obviously will take time to show results on ground.
If some well-to-do people like you and me loose some amount in equities, that too due to personal greed, we need to re-examine our own fitness to stay and play in this market- And not the government. Its time to ask – What I can do for the nation ? and not what nation can do for me.
Personally, I believe, worst sentiments are seeds to major gains in times to come. So, one needs to look within, keep an eye on next likely winners and act accordingly, rather than wasting time and spreading negative sentiments in commenting about people who are working relentlessly for the nation !
I hope, this forum will publish articles, not for TRP, but for real investor education leading to stable, reasonable gains for all. Though, chances are that people who are not willing to learn from past mistakes, will continue to make losses and remain deeply submerged in blamegame ! Thankfully, smart ones will gain obviously from such “apt” investors !!!
The point here is , how many times Jim Rogers proved correI have seeing him on CNBC since 10-15 yrs!…What about his love for Chinese stocks? What happened to that? Commom man….wake up….
Whatever JR says, I m confident that India will outshine rest of the world…