Sohn India Conference: Mission to hand out multibaggers
“Extra Kamala Pasand rakh lo,” Mandakini said, patting me affectionately on the back.
Mandakini is the better half of Shyambhai, the wizened proprietor of Shyam Tea Stall in Dalal Street.
She was preparing to send the three of us – Mukeshbhai, Jigneshbhai and me – to attend the famous Sohn India Conference 2018.
To prepare us for the arduous journey and conference, she had packed extra packets of Kamala Pasand Gutka in our backpacks.
We had also been given hipflasks of steaming hot kadak adrak chai to keep our energy levels high during the debates.
“Jabra multibagger stocks le ke aana,” she said, waving us goodbye.
Most of Dalal Street had come to see us off.
At the Sohn conference venue, the three of us decided to spread out and take vantage positions.
I sat in the middle row while Mukeshbhai and Jigneshbhai took the right and left rows respectively.
Raamdeo, Raamdeo …
Suddenly, the hall reverberated with chants of ‘Raamdeo, Raamdeo’.
Raamdeo Agrawal made a grand appearance in a manner befitting his stature of freshly-minted Billionaire.
There was clamour amongst the novices to click selfies with Raamdeo in the frame. Some stood up to give him a standing ovation.
The reason for Raamdeo’s popularity amongst the hoi polloi is because he is amongst the handful of individuals to have single-handed amassed a fortune in excess of Rs. 1000 crore from the stock market.
The astonishing aspect is that he has revealed all the secrets of how he managed this incredible feat in a youtube interview.
It is evident that if we follow in his illustrious footsteps and obey his instructions, we can also become multi-millionaires from the stock market.
First holder of 100-bagger stock
Yet another achievement for which Raamdeo Agrawal has achieved distinction is the fact that he is the first Indian to have snared a 100-bagger in the form of AU Small Finance Bank.
“We bought at Rs 50-60 crore valuation, we put Rs 20 crore, which gave us 30- 35 percent (stake). That was 6 years back. We sold it for Rs 5,000 crore .. 100x .. that’s the power of private sector banks” Raamdeo had said with obvious pride at his ability to spot winners early on.
Raamdeo narrated the fascinating story of how Sanjay Agarwal, the illustrious promoter of AU Small Finance Bank, had approached him when he was a struggler and requested for financial help.
One look at Sanjay Agarwal had convinced Raamdeo that AU was a 100-bagger in the making.
“The management .. the person … a chartered accountant, young, passionate and with integrity” Raamdeo said, struggling to find adjectives to praise Sanjay Agarwal.
Later, Raamdeo distilled his learning from the AU Financiers episode and formulated a ‘Five Point Technique For Finding Multibagger Stocks’.
(Raamdeo Agrawal learnt the ropes from Warren Buffett)
Banking sector will grow at 2x GDP
It is obvious that many more megabaggers will gush out from the banking and NBFC sector.
“The banking sector in India will grow at 15% in the next few years,” Raamdeo said with a flourish.
“This is 2x GDP,” he added for emphasis.
“Did you know that the Bank credit in India is only 51% while it is 250% in China,” he asked the novices who were staring goggle-eyed at him.
“There will be value migration and private banks will snatch market share from PSU banks,” he added.
Ramdeo Agarwal
Banking sector to grow at 15% (2x GDP) in next few years
Bank credit in India at 51 % vs 250% in China #sohnconference— Navin Shetty (@Navin_Shetty1) June 4, 2018
On How To Invest, @Raamdeo Agrawal tells @_nirajshah that value migration from PSU Banks to private ones will continue to happen in the future.https://t.co/SQeECc2OsQ pic.twitter.com/GWBfTjSvzP
— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) May 31, 2018
(Raamdeo Agrawal with Tanvir Gill, Mohnish Pabrai & Guy Spier at the Berkshire Hathaway conference)
Private Banks, NBFCs Will Grow At 27% CAGR: Uday Kotak & Basant Maheshwari
Raamdeo Agrawal’s prognosis is in line with that formulated by Billionaire Uday Kotak.
Uday Kotak opined that the share of private banks would surge from 30% to 50% in the foreseeable future.
PSB 2.0 | @udaykotak To CNBC-TV18 : Assuming organic growth of private banks such that their share goes up from 30% to 50% market share pic.twitter.com/G1bji7JmtY
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) March 20, 2018
There are 21 PSBs. So, not 1/3rd of pvt banks. And, yes, their share in banking assets has been on a steady decline. RBI data say that
— Tamal Bandyopadhyay (@TamalBandyo) March 21, 2018
Basant Maheshwari interpreted Uday Kotak’s prophecy to mean that private banks and NBFCs would grow at a scorching pace of 27% CAGR.
Reading between the lines from this @udaykotak interview. A 30:70 ratio between private and public moving to a 50:50 ratio in 5 years assuming a 15% industry credit growth means a 27% CAGR for private financiers. Smaller companies in niche segments can grow faster ! https://t.co/CgZQNlSM6x
— Basant Maheshwari (@BMTheEquityDesk) March 21, 2018
Even a raw novice like me knows that a growth rate of 27% CAGR means that multibaggers will come gushing out!
RBL Bank can be a 10-bagger
“RBL Bank can be a 10-bagger if its size and balance sheet grow in a sustainable manner,” Raamdeo said in an excited tone.
There was an audible gasp from the distinguished audience. Everyone sat erect in their chairs and paid attention.
“RBL Bank will be able to encash its large pool of profit,” he added.
Recommendations at *Sohn Conference 2018*
*Ramdev Agarwal*
1. *RBL* – P/E ratio of 33, slightly expensive, can be bought around P/E of 25 for a long term horizon. 10 bagger if size and balance sheet can sustainably grow. Micro finance exposure needs to reduce@SurabhiUpadhyay— nirav shah (@dhinchaknirav) June 4, 2018
Think that RBL bank will be able to encash on large profit pools, says @Raamdeo
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) June 4, 2018
Now @rblbank “Apno Ka Bank” is “Hamara Bank” too. Basking in d reflective glory of the gorgeous @shanta_vallury who is also Head HR, CSR & Internal Branding @rblbank. RBL& GGF will partner to improve lives of martyrs’ children & also work in program for adolescent girls. pic.twitter.com/KNMpwVLpE9
— Gautam Gambhir (@GautamGambhir) June 6, 2018
RBL Bank is perfectly poised to deliver steady and profitable growth: Experts
RBL Bank has received a clean chit from all experts.
“RBL Bank is perfectly poised to deliver steady and profitable growth, with its demonstrated capability across segments, strategic clarity of management and a good grip on asset quality,” the wizards at HDFC Sec opined.
“As high-yielding retail loans rise and the lucrative BBB vertical expands, an uptick in profitability is inevitable,” they added.
“The Rolodex Rolls On,” the wizards at Nirmal Bang said.
They explained that there is “continued validation of RBL’s business model” given that all metrics are decisively moving in the direction of Vision 2020.
The NIM has expanded to 3.98%, up 46 bps YoY, despite a challenging interest rate scenario.
The asset quality has remained well under control with marginal impact from RBI’s February 2018 circular on stress resolution.
Retail loans and DB&FI are witnessing a rise in loan share in consonance with the thesis.
A similar view has been expressed by Motilal Oswal and Chola Wealth.
Contra trades are not contra. The data supports the trade, but consensus disregards data: Shankar Sharma
Shankar Sharma also enjoys immense popularity amongst the hoi polloi because he has been feeding us with multibagger stock recommendations on a regular basis.
Shankar’s investment modus operandi is to home in on stocks which are not in favour of the cognoscenti.
Such stocks have no lofty expectations embedded in them and so the risk of a downside is virtually nil.
However, a slight improvement in the operational metrics is sufficient to send these stocks surging like rockets into the stratosphere.
Shankar has revealed his entire modus operandi to us (see Shankar Sharma Reveals Five Fail-Proof Mantras For Finding Multibagger Stocks).
The proof that the technique works is provided by the fact that Shankar snared stocks like Apple, Amazon and IndusInd Bank when they were quoting at beggarly valuations.
In fact, Shankar used the technique to recommend Twitter to us when it was languishing at the throwaway price of $17.
@invertalwaysinv @1shankarsharma Shankar Sharma's fascinating take on the Twitter stock. https://t.co/LdnfGTz9YQ
— L (@larissafernand) October 26, 2016
Twitter is now ruling the roost at $41, putting massive gains of 141% into the portfolios of its lucky shareholders.
Your conviction bet on Twitter $twtr moved from 17$ to 39.35 $ ! Contra bet ! Respect Boss ! conviction 🙂 @1shankarsharma
— Pratik Patel (@pratikpatel939) June 5, 2018
In the wake of the spectacular success of the twitter stock recommendation, Shankar explained that a “contra trade” is one where the cognoscenti is ignoring the writing which is on the wall and shunning the stock for extraneous reasons.
One should always respect the data and pay attention to it, Shankar advised.
Thanks Pratik. Contra trades aren't actually very contra….the data supports the trade, but consensus disregards data. So I always say: when somebody ignores data, it's they who are being contrarian. Not me! https://t.co/h0Xf4HWHcU
— Shankar Sharma (@1shankarsharma) June 5, 2018
Man Industries: Shankar Sharma’s recommendation
Man Industries is a logical recommendation of Shankar Sharma’s belief that crude oil prices will surge and there will be exponential growth in the oil and gas sector.
There will be huge demand for pipelines and other paraphernalia. Man Industries will be the natural beneficiary of this demand.
Shankar Sharma's first pick
Man industries #sohnconfernece
— Navin Shetty (@Navin_Shetty1) June 4, 2018
In an interaction with the charming Avanne Dubash, RC Mansukhani, the head honcho of Man Industries, revealed that nearly 70-80% of the Company’s business comes from the oil & gas sector.
“We will be able to improve profitability going ahead,” he assured in a confident tone.
@1shankarsharma bullish on Man Industries. Hear out what the Mgmt has to say on @ETNOWlive https://t.co/uGqXnMiXea
— avanne dubash (@avannedubash) June 5, 2018
#CorporateView | Will be able to improve profitability going ahead, given orderbook at hand; Oil & gas business our expertise, 70-80% business comes from there, says RC Mansukhani of Man Industries in an interaction with @avannedubash pic.twitter.com/hlx3C75bpY
— ET NOW (@ETNOWlive) June 5, 2018
Other stocks recommended at Sohn Conference
While Raamdeo Agrawal and Shankar Sharma were the cynosure of all eyes and stole the show, the other dignitaries also made their mark by recommending high-quality and potential multibagger stocks.
Recommendations at *Sohn Conference 2018*
Navneet Munot
1. Healthcare Sector with focus on Insurance and hospitalsShankar Sharma
1. Man Industries
2. HFCL
3. A2Z Infra
4. MEP Infra
*Ashwini Agarwal – Ashmore
1. Parag Milk Foods@Nigel__DSouza@_soniashenoy @Apurva29785389— nirav shah (@dhinchaknirav) June 4, 2018
Recommendations at Sohn Conference 2018
Ramdev Agarwal
1. RBL
Navneet Munot
1. Healthcare Sector with focus on Insurance and hospitals
Shankar Sharma
1. Man Industries
2. HFCL
3. A2Z Infra
4. MEP Infra
Ashwini Agarwal (Ashmore)
1. Parag Milk Foods#Sohn #stockstowatch #bse #nse— MidCap Laxmi (@MidCap_Laxmi) June 4, 2018
It is obvious that if we tuck into some or all of the recommended stocks during savage corrections, we will soon be on the road to prosperity!
RBL Bank, Man Ind, HFCL,and Parag Milk appear to be strong candidates for Multibaggers.
I bought Central Bank of India in last bull run, Granules India in this bull run, PNB housing after his last Conference recommendation of lakh Crore ki kahani. I LOST BADLY IN ALL THREE. So I no more buy on his recommendation. RBL Bank is already in my portfolio since I bought it on listing and I also think it has good long future. But now after his recommendation, I am worried.
Interesting observations- fit to be used as valuable lesson.
How about Federal Bank and L&T Finance ?
Yes, I agree with aforesaid observations as CBI was recommended not only by him but also by his friend RD and I too bought it at that time. Even the duo recommended to buy its rights offering subsequently and the stock has performed miserably resulting in huge loss !!! We must take such advices with pinch of salt as it seems that vested interests are always at play !
What was the picks in India Investing Conclave 2018 so that i can avoid them 🙂
Haaa
RBL Bank do look like a strong multi bagger candidate, I’ll add it in my list for further research. But I am not so positive on Man Industries.