Garbage In, Garbage Out
It is no secret that novice investors like you and me have tender and highly impressionable minds. We get influenced by what we see and hear.
If one listens to the narrative of junkyard politicians like Arvind Kejriwal, Mamta Banerjee, Sitaram Yechury etc one gets the impression that that demonetization has crippled the economy and that there is no hope for revival.
Even before demonetisation, subdued economic activity and contracting investment demand. After 8 Nov, a catastrophe unleashed. pic.twitter.com/aVPG2bASYp
— Sitaram Yechury (@SitaramYechury) December 5, 2016
नोटबंदी से छोटे कारोबारी बर्बाद @ArvindKejriwal pic.twitter.com/C1mJAYqOAO
— Brijesh Goyal (@brijeshgoyalaap) December 5, 2016
AAP hiding its failures by uttering lies.In ist 7 months of current FY only 25% of revenue target was reached.Was demonetization d reason? pic.twitter.com/AO5jjCi7QO
— Vijender Gupta (@Gupta_vijender) December 3, 2016
Deliberate buffoonery by Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee to benefit NAMO?
The statements by Arvind Kejriwal and Mamta Banerjee are so outlandish and unbelievable that some have started asking whether they are deliberately so worded as to rouse sympathy and support from the public for NAMO.
मैंने पहले ही कहा था मोदी जी की डिग्री फ़र्ज़ी हैं। He has little understanding of economy. https://t.co/egdcWAOKrY
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) December 4, 2016
देश का PM इतना सस्ता कभी नहीं बिका… https://t.co/AgVHvqayTc
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) December 3, 2016
Brand awareness for PayTM
Arvind Kejriwal’s attack on PayTM, for instance, on the day of demonetization, created enormous brand awareness for PayTM amongst the public. Several rushed to download the app to see what it is all about.
Paytm biggest beneficiary of PM's announcement. Next day PM appears in its ads. Whats the deal, Mr PM? https://t.co/lfP0PrQICQ
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) November 10, 2016
Thanks to Arvind Kejriwal’s tweet, PayTM has left its arch rivals like Mobikwik, Freecharge and SBI Buddy far behind.
In fact, PayTM is now being referred to in the same breath as debit and credit cards.
Debit/Credit cards & @paytm. This pic says a lot? . #Paytmkaro pic.twitter.com/4XjJdP9wxL
— Kiran Vasireddy (@KiranVasireddy) December 2, 2016
he's been asked to make stupid statements that will look intelligent only to pseudo liberals while janta realise that only modi makes sense
— Maithun (@Being_Humor) November 23, 2016
Respite from hardships of demonetisation by talk of Coup by the Army
Similarly, Mamta Banerjee’s foolish outburst that the Indian Army has launched a coup to take over West Bengal provided immense respite to NAMO because it diverted attention from the hardships that the masses are facing owing to the shortage of currency.
SHOCKING! MAMTA BANERJEE HAS GONE MAD! THIS IS WHAT SHE TWEETED AGAINST INDIAN ARMY! #MamataAgainstNation https://t.co/sp8opWlp1p
— Neeraj Khandelwal (@neerajassam) December 2, 2016
In fact, the CPM, which is the arch enemy of NAMO, suspected a rat and alleged that Mamta was orchestrating the rant on NAMO’s behest so as to “deviate from relevant issues”.
Mamata Banerjee is working as the 12th man in Modi-Amit Shah team, she wants to deviate from relevant issues: Mohd Salim CPM pic.twitter.com/LSe2j2RSp2
— ANI (@ANI_news) December 2, 2016
Gurus rush in to counsel novice investors from being misguided
The Gurus have rendered yeoman service to prevent novice investors from being misguided by the junkyard politicians. They have united as one to assure novice investors that demonetization will prove to be a “game changer” and will benefit the economy immensely in the long run.
This opinion was corroborated by Kenneth Andrade, the whiz-kid stock picker. Kenneth solemnly assured us that demonetization is a “huge positive” and the “best case scenario” for buying stocks.
Sowing of rabi crops rises 27% despite note ban
— Rahul Saraogi (@RahulSaraogi) December 3, 2016
Retweeted Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar):
India: the world's fastest-growing large economy pic.twitter.com/0N3nSNtudX https://t.co/avA58W3NCe
— anand balaji (@andybals) November 6, 2016
Top ten stocks to buy now
Porinju Veliyath was not content with offering abstract advice. He has cherry-picked ten top-quality stocks which will not only overcome the effects of demonetization but cause immense prosperity to investors.
Demonetization is a temporary blip; its adverse effects are being exaggerated and overestimated
“Demonetization is not that serious an issue. The negative impact is only in the short term and not as bad as people make it out to be,” Ridham Desai said.
“There is no question of a recession”, he added in an authoritative tone.
Indian equity market poised for 15% return next year: Morgan Stanley https://t.co/oS84lVG7Yx
— Livemint (@livemint) November 29, 2016
Morgan Stanley Sees 30% Chance Of Sensex Touching 39,000 In 2017https://t.co/Yk3peWjM0k
— NDTV Profit (@NDTVProfit) November 29, 2016
Grandmother Of All Bull Markets Is Coming
Ridham made it clear that the “Grandmother of all bull markets is coming” and that the next 10-15 years are likely to be a “golden period” for India. He warned that anyone who does not invest in stocks will “massively regret” in future.
His inspirational words are worth being quoted verbatim:
“India is on a structural upward path. The next 10-15 years are likely to be a golden period for India. So anybody who doesn’t want equities will massively regret this hindsight. The younger you are, the more equities you should have. If you’re in your twenties, hundred percent or 90 percent of your portfolio should be equities ….. So I think it’s a golden period. If 2003-2009 was the mother of all bull markets, I call this the grandmother of all bull markets. And we’re just at the beginning. So we’ve really not seen the movie as yet, it’s happening right now.”
Bank & NBFC stocks are the best buys owing to impending rate cuts
Ridham opined that an aggressive rate cut by the RBI is on the cards now as demonetization has slowed demand. The economy will get a booster shot by way of lowered interest rates.
“India’s macro stability remains in its best shape in several years and policy momentum is the best since 2007. Financial conditions look easy and the inflation trajectory suggests more rate cuts are in the pipeline,” Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi said in a research note.
It is a no-brainer that Banks and NBFC stocks will fly out into orbit as soon as there is any whiff of a rate cut.
Massive contraction in the monetary base and liquidity in India. I expect a 50bps inter meeting rate cut by RBI followed by further cuts
— Rahul Saraogi (@RahulSaraogi) November 15, 2016
Ridham also advised that we should be overweight consumer discretionary and technology stocks. He opined that we should avoid staples, energy, industrials, telecoms and utilities.
Conclusion
We have to bear in mind Ridham Desai’s advice that investors who do not buy stocks will “massively regret” their decision in the foreseeable future. We have to adopt a systematic buy-on-dips strategy and scoop up top-quality stocks when the opportunity is there!
Since most of you are from Tamil Nadu for a moment I will forget our past and use this forum to remember Jaya “Amma”. Stocks will rise and fall but it will be difficult to find a Indian politician who did something tangible for the poor and increased their welfare.
RIP JAYA “AMMA”
ofcourse most intelligent/humble investors are from Tamil Nadu, humble city, RIP amma… the iron lady of India
I was trying to express some solace for the death for CM Jayalalithaa and yet you used this opportunity to prove your point.
I have already expressed or conceded my defeat in the forum. I hope you respect the sentiments of people at some junctures. There was no need to use this sad occasion to prove your point.
I think I will refrain from further comments in the future.
Brajesh, I have deep respect for all communities I have lived in northern and southern part of India, beautiful ..why would you refrain from commenting, I am not a part of this community blog,just a fan of rj and like reading articles.full stop, and your post “Since most of you are from Tamil Nadu for a moment I will forget our past “this got me thinking…. are you a racist? what do you mean by this….no one is superior here, north ,south,east ,west …yes TN people are intelligent,humble, but mumbaities are professional, smart..Delhitee well dressed,cool…bengali-warm,artistic, great sense of humor….
you forgot to write about Gujaratis…
@sissy,
didnt want to add fuel to the sensetive debate between the two respected fellow members and so had refrained from posting earlier. But now since you raised about Gujaratis, what I wanted to say was
Gujjus as Gujaratis are fondly referred to along with Marwaris /Jains, I have always felt are the best investors
Btw I am neither a Gujju or Marwari
My final comment. Our PM Modiji is a Gujju and so is this singer. BTW I am from Andaman and Nicobar Island so I have none of the good qualities mentioned by ditto but don’t mind
@Brajesh,
Maybe the admin or Arjun should have started a separate thread dedicated to Dear Amma. Hopefully this would have got my fellow countrymen (Indians) to post their grief and pay homage to Amma
This exchange reminded me of an article I read about a foreigner being asked by his Indian friend (after the foreigner returned from a holiday in India) – how did you find India and Indian people and to which the foreigner was all praise about India but about Indians what he said was that “unfortunately I did not find any Indian” – for the people he met here were either Maharashtrians or Tamil or Gujjus or Panjus or Bengalis etc etc or were either Hindus or Muslims or Sikhs etc etc.
Time we rise above …..
Maybe this will be the final comment. I have no control over what people can interpret or think or assume. I thought people who manage and comment on this website are based in Tamil Nadu. And I had an unpleasant experience on the website once hence I made this comment. As I said this was not to prove any point but just humble condolences. Late Jayalalithaa was an efficient leader and brought many schemes for the welfare of the poor. If I acknowledge her contribution to the state of Tamil Nadu and express my condolences this makes me a racist.
Also I have to remind you that in India our states are organized along linguistic and cultural lines. We maintain our identities and together we are called Indians. We vote for state elections for Tamil Nadu assembly and we vote for national elections to Indian parliament.
As far as your advice is concerned point taken and with humility. I hope every Indian citizen thinks that he is an Indian first then a Tamilian, Bengali, Gujarati, Assamese etc etc. later
Mr ridham desai is wrong most of the times. Please go through all his predictions in recent times.yes we may get 15 percent return in 2017 after that it is too difficult to predict.
If bull run is there in dow…then a good upside cant be ruled out.see sensex at 40k in the second half of 2017-18.Take nothing for granted, FEAR IS Good, you will never get this opportunity again
Now grandmother of all bull runs is going to start!
What happened to grandfather of all bull runs? Some one was talking about it sometime back…
Bull **** only happens and FIIs laugh all the way to banks and retail investors are fried!
#Nivezareview :
Demonetisation will have a impact on overall spending for 2-3 months. It will affect sectors as well and sales of the companies. However it is not permanent and long lasting impact. This is just a start for new faster development and overall economy. Overall use of digital payments will increase in the country and which will infarct help the economy grow faster than earlier. The overall interest rates will come down now in few months it will help housing and constructions and Infra sectors as well as Auto sectors. Consumption and logistics and transportation sector will get a boost post GST. So for long term investors this is a good time to start buying quality names from these sectors.
Today, on demonetisation (DM), any joker or a conman can give any wild commentary and we are here to hear them. I am not meaning the politicians. (We had enough of lofty promises of politicians turning to be BIG TIME LIES. Getting back money from Swiss Banks is one). I am meaning people from the INVESTMENT COMMUNITY. There are equal number of people like Ridham Desai who are against DM. Do not believe anybody. Believe in yourself. People like Desai are here to entice the public to fund their investment companies’ various Pf schemes. And in turn, these managers get extremely rich using our money. Dont believe these managers.
it looks like a political party blog… why can’t he talk about stocks instead of showing his Bhakti to Namo???
Advice taken Arjun…have been buying on dips.
Mismanged Demonetisation is worst that could have happened to Indian Economy .In India it is assumed that more than 90% transections were in cash before 8 th November .Now Economy is in Coma with consumer demand in Deep Freeze due to shortage of cash.This may continue for atleast two quarters.And it may take one more year for recovery due to ripple affect.Domestic investers were one of the main drivers of recent bull run through SIP in mutual funds.Now suddenly these investers find out their paper profits have been wiped out and many with negative returns.I am worried that that this new breed of investers may throw their towel when their SIP comes for fresh renwel.With expected set back in quarterly numbers and drying of fresh funds through SIP may affact market adversely.More over with set back to Real Estate prices,many of investers may feel them as less wealthy ,which may affact spending by Indian consumer which will further slow down demand.Even FII investment may also start factoring in unpredictable Modi Govt and may result into lowering of FII inflows.Just repeatly saying that buy only in correction means, no body should buy at normal levels ,may cap meaningful upside of market.Any body buying at bottom may gain ,but who knows the ultimate bottom and what to those large numbers who bought at higher levels due to their misplaced faith in Govt and Indian Economy.
@kharb,
since you are the foremost critic about anything that Namo does or does’nt do – could you
1- tell us what would have ensured the demonitisation move being well managed. specific steps which should have been taken by GoI (without putting the secrecy factor at risk)
2- tell us how GoI should handle the menace of Black money
3- tell us “how well” the country was managed the last70 years by the Gandhis and how they ensured India remained both corruption free and black money free
You can take your time to research the answers but please ensure they are backed up with tangible proof
Hi Saturn,
Sometimes its good to not see everything with political point of view. With demonetization it is quite clear Modi screwed Indian economy by big time.
Handling of black money isn’t really difficult all government have to do is make taxes easy to understand. To make sure everyone pays fair share of tax all government has to do is introduce small flat tax to businesses as well as individuals with possible minimum paper work.
Believe me, it is as simple as that and it’ll work.
And seriously this is investment blog why not keep discussions focused only on practical investing and economics. Honestly I am fed up with people fighting everywhere as gandi and modi bhakts.
Please keep discussions informed, educated and civil. You can scream all you want on Kharb but this time his point of view is more informed and based on pure economics as compared to yours which is just biased.
Economy was still to recover under Modi govt but was running with Feel Good Factor.Now Economy has been hit hard with Mismanaged Demonetistion and Feel Bad Factor may haunt markets and may result into start of DeModitisation of the nation .
we will still have multibaggers 😉 some sectors will come with stellar results say paper sector
No body knows the pain of a middle class man who runs a small shop. He is indeed in pain as the business is down.