Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the Badshah of Dalal Street, once uttered prophetic words that deserve to be inscribed in letters of gold:
“In equities, the key lies in predicting what tomorrow is going to be. The tomorrows are going to determine the equity prices. We can’t see tomorrow; but we can anticipate tomorrow”
Wayne Gretzky, the Olympic Champion, uttered the memorable words: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
Today, while novice investors woke up terrified at the prospect of the markets nosediving over NAMO’s savage loss in the Bihar elections, Vijay Kedia was cool as a cucumber. Unlike novice investors who were distraught with worry, he was calculating what the electoral debacle meant and how NAMO would redeem himself.
The answer is brilliantly simple:
In my view the positive impact of Mr.Modi's defeat in Bihar will surprisingly lead to passing of the GST bill very soon.
— Vijay Kedia (@VijayKedia1) November 9, 2015
(In my view the positive impact of Mr.Modi’s defeat in Bihar will surprisingly lead to passing of the GST bill very soon.)
Why Vijay Kedia came to this conclusion becomes clear if you ponder over it.
In the past, there has been a deadlock over the GST Bill because NAMO has stood his ground while RaGa has stood his. Both parties have stubbornly refused to yield to the other’s demands.
However, NAMO now has his back to the wall. He is like a wounded tiger who knows that his days are numbered. His credibility is at an all-time low. He knows that he has to pull off a major success in order to stay relevant.
In these circumstances, NAMO will leave no stone unturned to ensure that the GST Bill is passed by Parliament even if it means conceding to RaGa’s demands.
The groundwork has already begun towards that end.
An indication was given that “Govt to reach out to oppn for passage of key bills like GST, after meeting of Cabinet Committee of Parliamentary Affairs”.
Govt to reach out to oppn for passage of key bills like GST, say sources after meeting of Cabinet Committee of Parliamentary Affairs.
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) November 9, 2015
RBI Governer Raghuram Rajan was brought in to say “The passage of #GST is crucial for the economy and is beyond politics”.
— Doordarshan News (@DDNewsLive) November 9, 2015
Arun Jaitley cleaverly sought to appease Nitesh Kumar by stating: “GST Will Benefit States Like Bihar The Most” and “GST will be helpful for consuming states such as Bihar”.
JUST IN | Jaitley: we are hopeful GST will be passed, sense will prevail on Cong, GST will be helpful for consuming states such as Bihar
— CNN-IBN News (@ibnlive) November 9, 2015
Arun Jaitley also confidently declared that “Passing GST only a question of time”.
— चाणक्य (@ChankyaGuru) November 9, 2015
There is a historical precedent to back Vijay Kedia’s theory. When Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were insulted by Nawaz Sharief by being called “Dehati Aurat” and by the Washington Post by being called a “Tragic Figure” and when Mamata Banerjee (their coalition partner) was twisting their arm, they retaliated by unleashing a barrage of reforms and FDI incentives to prove that they were still Boss and in control of the situation.
Vivek Panday, a fund manager, has expressed the same view as that of Vijay Kedia: “Its only a matter of time that GST is passed…it will be passed even if BJP doesnt Bihar. Keep accumulating TCI (255-265) and Gati (cmp)” he said.
Its only a matter of time that GST is passed…it will be passed even if BJP doesnt Bihar. Keep accumulating TCI (255-265) and Gati (cmp)
— Vivek Pandey (@IVivekPandey) November 7, 2015
The consequence of this analysis is that we have to position ourselves into logistics stocks before the market figures it out and sends them rocketing into space.
As to the stocks to focus on, TCI and Gati, recommended by Vivek Pandey, stand out because they have the backing of eminent investors like Radhakishan Damani and Ashish Kacholia. Both stocks have a long track record and we can be assured of getting our money back in one piece even in the worst case scenario. TCI has a slight edge over Gati owing to the former’s aura of “value unlocking” from the proposed “demerger”.