Extra TLC for novices …
Sonia Shenoy’s sixth sense alerted her to the fact that the novices at Dalal Street need extra dosage of TLC.
This was actually evident from our haggard faces and bloodshot eyes.
All of our multibagger aspirations have not only evaporated into thin air but most stocks in the portfolios have turned into “multi-beggars”, leaving us in a highly impoverished and pitiable state.
“Of course, his first goal in the World Cup had to be a penalty,” Sonia Shenoy said with her trademark cheerful smile, trying to distract novices from the stock market and get them interested in football.
Of course, his first goal in the World Cup had to be a penalty. #penaldo #PORvESP @Cristiano
— Sonia Shenoy (@_soniashenoy) June 15, 2018
The ploy had the desired effect with all and sundry getting into a heated debate with her on the merits and demerits of the penalty goal.
The pains of the stock market became a distant memory in the playful banter.
However, the respite was short-lived.
In the morning, Sonia had to break the news that the markets were in for a rough day.
“Big cracks open up in the asian markets this morning,” she said in a gentle tone.
“Hong kong market now down almost 650 points,” she added, underlining the fact that Dalal Street is not the only one to face the turmoil.
Big cracks open up in the asian markets this morning. Hong kong market now down almost 650 points
— Sonia Shenoy (@_soniashenoy) June 19, 2018
Ayesha Faridi took a cue from this and did her best to soften the blow.
“Asian markets down spooked by Trump,” she said, seeking to pin the blame on Donald Trump and making it look as if the perils are not confined to Dalal Street.
Asian markets down spooked by Trump's latest salvo which takes the trade war between US and China a notch higher. Trump directs US Trade Representative to identify $200 Bn worth of Chinese goods for tariffs..
— Ayesha Faridi (@AyeshaFaridi1) June 19, 2018
NAMO may not come back in 2019 … brace for shock
Basant Maheshwari is not known for his diplomatic skills. He tells things as they are, without any sugar coating.
“Narendra Modi not coming back in 2019 looks quite a likelihood … in case Mamta Banerjee, Chandra Babu Naidu come into power in a coalition government .. there will be very little for anybody to do .. portfolios have to get used to shock,” Basant roared, sending novices scampering like rabbits into their bunkers.
Basant also warned that the stock prices have not yet discounted this dreadful eventuality, implying that stocks can plunge into hitherto unknown levels in the worst case scenario.
@BMTheEquityDesk says Market still not factoring the risk of Modi not coming back, hence prudent to stick with quality stocks to ride out the possible vulnerable phase. Can be in for a mkt-shock if that risk possibility plays out. Need to be with names with sustainable growth
— Ajaya Sharma (@Ajaya_buddy) June 18, 2018
Akash Prakash has warned of an exodus of foreign investors
In April 2018, Akash Prakash of Amansa Capital had also hinted that NAMO’s days are numbered.
“What was seen a sure thing even a few months back, the current regime coming back to power, is now seen as more complex and not straight forward,” he has said.
“At the moment global investors have little faith in any alternative to the current regime,” he added, implying that foreigners would desert India if any junkyard politician came into power.
We need to remove the BJP from power. The economy is in shambles. @NITIAayog numbers are unreal. Farmers are dying and there are no jobs. Environment of hatred is being created and it is dangerous: @SitaramYechury pic.twitter.com/MqN7h5o9VG
— News18 (@CNNnews18) June 18, 2018
BJP's bypoll blues: Advantage united opposition?
Senior journalist @_sabanaqvi to NDTV
Watch #RoadTo2019 LIVE on: https://t.co/hMlRpgrUU6 pic.twitter.com/0gkRnAoVGw
— NDTV (@ndtv) June 15, 2018
Money can be made despite the Government
Basant realized that his words may have spooked novices to a point of no return.
“I am not creating a scary scenario,” he said hastily.
“In the past, money has been made by investors despite the Government … People have made money even in coalition governments. So, the Government thing is a temporary phenomenon“, he added in a soothing tone, hinting that NAMO’s absence does not mean that there will be an end to multibaggers.
Buy only high-quality blue-chip mid-cap stocks
At this stage, Nayantara Rai and Karunya Rao rightly asked Basant what stocks should be bought to prepare oneself for the onslaught of the junkyard political parties.
Basant reiterated his pet theme that investors should stay far away from alleged ‘kachra’ and ‘chakri’ stocks.
In fact, Basant has been repeatedly warning us about such stocks though we have so far turned a deaf ear to it.
And chakri and kachra fall the most because they have no earnings back up in a bear market ?. And earnings dry up because of a) Inferior business models b) there is no incentive for the promoter and operator to fudge numbers !
— Basant Maheshwari (@BMTheEquityDesk) June 10, 2018
He also warned that we should stay away from alleged “pied pipers”.
A true indicator of bad market sentiment is when the ‘Pied Pipers of Twitter’ unilaterally decide against sharing their stock picks on a public forum. The heat of the drawdown is just too warm for comfort. #TheThoughtfulInvestor
— Basant Maheshwari (@BMTheEquityDesk) June 19, 2018
Basant advised that we should load our portfolios with stocks which are resilient and would grow despite all challenges of the economy.
He cited the example of private banks and NBFCs as the perfect hiding place because these companies are snatching market share from their PSU counterparts and growing at a scorching pace.
In fact, Basant has earlier formulated the theory that private banks are slated to grow at an eye-popping growth rate of 27% CAGR over the foreseeable future.
Reading between the lines from this @udaykotak interview. A 30:70 ratio between private and public moving to a 50:50 ratio in 5 years assuming a 15% industry credit growth means a 27% CAGR for private financiers. Smaller companies in niche segments can grow faster ! https://t.co/CgZQNlSM6x
— Basant Maheshwari (@BMTheEquityDesk) March 21, 2018
Basant also advised tucking into FMCG stocks which are growing at a scorching pace such as D-Mart.
With regard to his all-time favourite HFC stock, PNB Housing Finance, Basant explained that the desperation of the promoter, PNB, and investor, Carlyle, to divest the stock is paying havoc with sentiments.
#Reports PNB HOUSING FINANCE
Carlyle Looking To Sell Entire Stake In Company
PNB Too Looking To Pare Its Stake@CNBC_Awaaz
— Ashish Verma (@AshVerma111) June 11, 2018
However, these issues become irrelevant in the context of a 5-year holding period, he opined.
However, a further worry plaguing PNB Housing Fin is the fear that its rating may be downgraded as rating agencies are uncomfortable with LAP and developer loan exposures.
#CNBCTV18Exclusive | PNB Housing Fin rating may be downgraded as rating agencies are uncomfortable with LAP & developer loan exposures, sources tell @kothariabhishek pic.twitter.com/Ak21tfw5dH
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) June 19, 2018
#CNBCTV18Exclusive | We learn from sources that a rating review for PNB Housing Finance may be on the cards @kothariabhishek has the details pic.twitter.com/PtuHBwryAy
— CNBC-TV18 News (@CNBCTV18News) June 19, 2018
Further, Basant expressed a clear allergy to buying large-cap blue-chip stocks.
“Nobody became rich buying blue-chip stocks,” he said in a dismissive tone.
#MarketView | Must buy high quality stocks to survive uncertain poll outcome in 2019; No problem in buying a high quality midcap stock, says Basant Maheshwari of Basant Maheshwari Wealth Advisers LLP in an #Exclusive conversation with @NayantaraRai and @RaoKarunya pic.twitter.com/3Kd4YmV3zF
— ET NOW (@ETNOWlive) June 18, 2018
Other stocks to buy for our portfolios
Amongst other stocks, we can consider BBTC, the stock recently recommended by Sunil Singhania.
BBTC has given a spectacular gain of 15x over the past few years and is still undervalued according to noted experts.
Some other stocks which are said to be undervalued include Summit Securities and Stel Holdings.
Convicing logic has been given by the experts as to why these stocks are a safe buy in the present market conditions.
Raamdeo Agrawal and Shankar Sharma also teamed up to recommend potential 10-bagger stocks at the famous Sohn India conference.
Shyam Sekhar has also recently recommended two high-quality and fail-safe stocks for us to tuck into without any hesitation.
If we had paid attention to Basant’s warnings against ‘kachra’ and ‘chakri’ stocks, we could have saved ourselves a lot of grief. Thankfully, it is still not too late for us to make amends and tuck into high-quality stocks before the onslaught of Mayawati, Mamta and Sonia takes Dalal Street by storm!
Comments on Kachra and Chakri stocks are OK and should be avoided at any cost.
But NAMO is sure to comeback in 2019.
You have underestimated his political acumen, divisive politics hindutva card, unparallel organisational strength of RSS and great ability to survive all the crisis. He had honed his skill as CM of Gujarat where despite everybody against him including a blood thirsty Congress at the Centre could not do anything to him.
Don’t underestimate NAMO.
At least till 2019.
Does namo even care?…hes busy with his foreign trips…
Why he should not enjoy foreign trips, in 2014 Loksabha polls Modi had won Round the world multiple times free ticket at the expense of poor public, valid till May 2019.
Choosing Mamata and Mayawati over Basant’s Mamata and Chandrababu Naidu sounds like desperation to create a scary headline. Please avoid
There has been unnecessary hype about Modi. What has we achieved. No order to any Indian company making defence equipment under make in India, only slogans (tender was called many times for six submarines for L&T, R Naval but no order was given, similarly other like Walchand etc also lamenting of lack of orders), despite crude at lowest we paid high petrol/diesel prices resulting in high inflation because of which RBI didn’t cut rate when it had too. Failed Note Bandi which had not gained anything but ruined many businesses, higher taxes are paid by those who are honestly paying them. He was the one who opposed GST when he was CM, now taking credit for the same with higher taxes on maximum items. So what he had done for the country which others cannot do. India will move on its own whether Modi will be PM or not. PMs come and go but India will remain and keep flourshing.
Last 4 year me border k kuchh area ko chhorkar desh k kisi V city me ek V bomb blast NAhi hua hi …. Hamare village me 18–19 hr bijli aane lagi…To fir Modi ji ko vote kyu nahi dena chahiye.
Yes many things has improved….Low level corruption has gone down…try to give money to JE…they are scared….my my village transformer burned down and we called the office by next day 9am whole team reached the village to fix the problem….things are improving definitely.
Foundation for the current development was already done by previous governments don’t forget that. It’s just comic.
Best of the gains have been in the market during Congress regime. Let BM not apprehend and freighten unnecessarily to novice investors. Any Govt which comes will be market and investor friendly rather more as compared to present regime which has only been burdening the economy with taxes after taxes.
Yes, burdening the economy with more and more taxes is the only goal of this government.
You seem to be contradicting in your views from yesterday to today! Does not matter. Your current view is right!
Anyway, I am disappointed with the ability of Basant Maheshwari and other so called investment gurus or whoever posing as a political guru. I am an ordinary investor with some basic political knowledge, and I have been saying over the last few months that the political arithmetic has changed drastically. Even in 2014, I have contended (against media/bhakt hype) that Modi coming to power with full majority with only 31% vote share was more due to the divided opposition in 3 major states – UP, Bihar and Maharashtra, which gave BJP maximum seats (more than half of 272 required for majority). As we subsequently saw, BJP was shattered against the united opposition in Bihar assembly elections. Of late, we have seen a greater resolve in otherwise sloppy politicians like Mayawati who has open-heartedly (and selflessly) aligned with SP in UP which caused BJP to lose its 3 big seats, including that of CM Yogi’s Gorakhpur. It struggled in its own strong state of Gujarat in a close fight against Congress (Congress mukt bharat, anyone?). It was destroyed by AAP in Delhi in 2015 (within few months of the so-called Modi wave of 2014). It could not get majority in Karnataka despite strong anti-incumbency against Congress. Indications are quite clear that it is likely to lose Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, with MP becoming a close fight like Gujarat.
Only an absolute majority in 2014 got Modi the PM post. Even if BJP becomes single largest party, but gets below 200 seats and has to depend on other regional parties for power, even then, someone else from the BJP can become acceptable for PM post. But currently with Shiv Sena, TDP etc moving out and Nitish waiting to do the same, BJP’s tally of below 200 seats can only move it to the opposition.
However, markets may only see knee jerk reaction, but on the long run, all will be fine. Remember, this govt has got all financials wrong despite filling the coffers with huge excise duty on fuel with low crude prices prevailing in its first 3 years of its existence.
With so many financial wrongs (add demonetisation, sloppy GST implementation etc), markets will actually be better off with a different government. We all know a coalition may not survive for long, but the nation needs some fresh air from these financial chaos. Markets have been rising on liquidity, false stats and not on real performance. PE ratios have gone through the roof for many due to the hype created by these so called investment gurus selling their multibagger stories, these have to correct big time. Safe to buy/hold will be consistently performing, lower PE stocks in recently beaten down sectors like textiles, metals, chemicals etc.
My yesterday’s comment was on NAMO’s survival skill, his manipulative and marauding skill to the hilt – again don’t underestimate him.
My today’s comments were on financial mismanagement of the economy.
Hi Kamal, So what is the progress on swatch bharat, law and order, sanitation, drinking water, corruption, utilities to citizes, happiness quotient, resolving Kashmir, competitiveness over China, jobs, entrepreneurship (talking about small businessmen-as them) and not only corporates. Tell me about any progress plz, very keen to hear. Rgds
Why to waste more time in discussing Modi, he had many self goals with cheers by Bhakts destroying Indian Economy like failed Demonetisation, LTCG and many more. Better we plan portfolio which is politically resilient . Pvt banks, insurance, NBFC including HFC, FMCG and auto are good space.
In fact, this government is the least market friendly. Look at the way they have managed the economy and introduced taxes, including LTCG, enhanced excise duty on petrol and diesel (with this promise when introduced that this money will be used to pass on the benefits during crude price rise – but this is not happening) and what not.
Infra space with stock like L&T can also be good stock. I am invested in sectors and stock I mentioned.
Sure, anything can happen. But, he should get his head examined.
What a sick article. We all know that you are chaplusi chamcha of Modi. But you forgot that we made money before Modi and we will make money after Modi. Modi is just a passing phase. Please concentrate on stocks and less on politics.
I tend to agree with Kamal Garg. PM Modi has a passion called INDIA. He will certainly win 2019 and usher in a strong governance led revival of economy. I believe in the wisdom of this great nation. People will give a resounding mandate in favor of PM Modi.
I am an NRI and I love to tell this to all Indians. We are so proud to call India motherland becuase all you Indians chose Modi as the PM.
If you choose to pick Mamata bannerjee or Rahul or Mayawati, then it is totally fine. I can leave India easily and return to my lavish lifestyle in a first world country. And I will, dont you worry. Good luck to all you Indians.
Farooq Abdullah will be YOUR foreign minister. Owaisi will be YOUR Defence minister. Rabbi Devi will be YOUR finance minister.
Please don’t come back.
Only if Modi looses ok. And I have as much right over India as any local who CANNOT leave. Luckily I have faith that there are more mature, knowledgable, prudent, sane, patriotic, and common sensed Indians than yourself.
Kayar…bhagoda..get lost…we can manage without cowards
Hi Daman, India is proud of the patriots like you. Every patriot has a great passion for India.
UPA or Mamta brigade are clear and present danger. Bharat Maheshwari is quiet precient, UPA2 economics still haunts everyone, massive scam, bad economics low growth high inflation .. also the modi premium will go away so expect 10-25% cut in your portfolio
It is impossible for Modi to win against a combined opposition and anti incumbency. It’s best we get out of the market by December and return after a few months when market has crashed due to Mamta becoming PM